President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has not been a game changer in the presidential race. He is still well behind former Vice President Joe Biden with less than three weeks to go.
Beyond some disqualifying scandal for Barrett, the only way Democrats likely could stop her nomination is for Republicans to face insurmountable public pressure not to put her on the Supreme Court. I have noted in the past that public opinion has been important in determining how many votes a Supreme Court nominee gets. Even the most qualified and moderate nominees tend to get fewer votes if the public doesn’t like them. On the other end, nominees that traditional metrics deem unqualified or extreme ideologically get more votes when the public likes them. Part of the reason Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation vote was so close in 2018 was that he was unpopular. Just 38% of registered voters had a positive view of Kavanaugh as he was getting confirmed, according to CNN/SSRS polling.
