The Trump administration spurred development of a vaccine; the Biden administration has to persuade Americans to take it.
Editor’s Note: The Atlantic is making vital coverage of the coronavirus available to all readers. Find the collection here. In the end, there was no October surprise. Donald Trump spent months declaring that a COVID-19 vaccine was imminent, a gambit that failed to pressure the FDA into an approval before Election Day but did succeed, nevertheless, in eroding the American public’s confidence in a vaccine. It was only yesterday that Pfizer released very early but very promising results suggesting that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate could be more than 90 percent effective. The company plans to seek emergency authorization from the FDA later this month, when required safety data are complete. If authorized, the initial rollout of this vaccine will likely begin in the fractious period before the inauguration, under a lame-duck president who claims that the election he lost was stolen. There will be a path to ending the pandemic, but it will be fraught. Joe Biden will have to restore trust in a vaccine that his predecessor has fervently politicized, and Americans will have to be willing to take the vaccine regardless of whom they voted for—if they voted at all. If not, the coronavirus will simply rage on. The good news, if the preliminary data hold, is that the Pfizer vaccine appears highly effective, which in and of itself could sway hesitant Americans, says Matt Motta, a political scientist at Oklahoma State University. Ninety percent efficacy is far better than the 50 percent bar set by the FDA for authorization and far better, frankly, than scientists had expected, given the type of virus. The closer a COVID-19 vaccine gets to preventing all infections, the stronger the case for it. A Biden administration is also a return to the very basics of scientific communication: not openly fighting with agencies, letting scientists rather than politicians speak, and setting realistic timelines on vaccine rollout. The president-elect’s and the president’s reactions to the Pfizer news were a study in contrasts. In his statement, Biden praised the experts involved before pivoting to the importance of masks and social distancing in the many months before widespread vaccination is possible. Trump tweeted, “STOCK MARKET UP BIG, VACCINE COMING SOON. REPORT 90% EFFECTIVE. SUCH GREAT NEWS!” Biden’s conciliatory political instincts are likely to help too. “If he says, ‘I fully endorse the vaccine put in motion under the Trump administration.
