Some officials caution that the trade-offs for American security could be steep without the constellation of military bases, arsenal of weaponry and aircraft, and network of human sources the two-decade American effort in Afghanistan has accrued.
The military and intelligence agencies are racing to refine plans for countering extremist groups in Afghanistan following President Joe Biden’s planned troop withdrawal, but current and former officials warn it will be far more difficult to head off threats to U.S. security from afar. Biden said the United States would reposition personnel and equipment once the Pentagon pulls its forces out of Afghanistan ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Sept.11,2001, attacks. « We’ll not take our eye off the terrorist threat, » Biden said as he announced his decision, to end a war that is now America’s longest, a goal that has eluded earlier presidents. Top Biden aides said the move, which came despite warnings from military and intelligence leaders that withdrawal could permit a diminished al-Qaida to regroup, was necessary to comply with a 2020 withdrawal agreement President Donald Trump negotiated with the Taliban, and to allow the United States to focus on more pressing challenges, like China’s military rise. But some officials cautioned that the trade-offs for American security, especially given the anemic state of peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government, could be steep without the constellation of military bases, arsenal of weaponry and aircraft, and network of human sources the two-decade American effort in Afghanistan has accrued. « The reason why al-Qaida is pretty weak right now is that we’ve been putting pressure on them, » making it hard for them to attempt to regroup, said Lisa Curtis, who served as the top White House official for Afghanistan and Pakistan during the Trump administration. Without an American presence, she said, « they’re going to have the freedom to do just that. » Curtis’ warning echoed statements from CIA Director William Burns, who told lawmakers this week that the military departure would diminish the U.S. government’s ability to detect and respond to upticks in extremist threats, also including the Islamic State. « To be honest, there is a significant risk once the U.S. military and the coalition militaries withdraw, » he said. Pentagon officials say that preliminary repositioning plans, drawn up during a policy review Biden kicked off after taking office and during earlier debates about U.S. options in Afghanistan, will be reworked and submitted to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for approval. « We’re still working out what the future bilateral relationship is going to be with Afghanistan, » Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Friday. « It will not include a U.S. military footprint, » he said, with the exception of a Marine force assigned to protect the U.S. embassy. Among the biggest challenges once troops are gone will be how to effectively surveil – and potentially strike – extremist groups in Afghanistan, which is landlocked and far from any major American base. U.S. aircraft could launch flights from al-Udeid, the sprawling air base outside the Qatari capital that is the main U.
