The forecast, which follows a record season in 2020, arrives as hurricanes are becoming more destructive over time.
Federal scientists on Thursday forecast that 2021 could see in the range of 13 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher in the Atlantic. Ben Friedman, the acting administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said, “an above-normal season is most likely.” Hurricane season runs from June 1 until Nov.30, though the last six years have seen storms form before its official start. This year’s announcement comes after a record-shattering 2020 season of 30 named storms — so many that we ran through the alphabet for only the second time and resorted to using Greek letters. Hurricanes have become more destructive over time, in no small part because of the influences of a warming planet. Climate change is producing more powerful storms, and they dump more water because of heavier rainfall and a tendency to dawdle and meander; rising seas and slower storms can make for higher and more destructive storm surges. But humans play a part in making storm damage more expensive, as well, by continuing to build in vulnerable coastal areas. Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA’s climate prediction center said “we do not expect the 2021 hurricane season to be as active” as last year’s, but added that “it only takes one dangerous storm to devastate communities and lives.” The agency will issue another forecast later in the summer, before the height of hurricane season. Thursday’s forecast is based on NOAA’s updated “period of prediction” for storms, part of a once-per-decade revision of the statistics used to determine how a season stacks up, and reflects the growing number of storms in the Atlantic over the decades. That 30-year average number of storms has edged up from 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes in the previous period’s version to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes has stayed the same. The science of forecasting the effects of individual storms has seen “huge progress,” said Suzana Camargo of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Technological advances are giving people far more accurate warnings of hurricane tracks, rainfall and surge risk as well as understanding of the connections between the storms and climate change. The United States is approaching this hurricane season as those who respond to the nation’s disasters are stretched thin. On top of wildfires in the West, pounding rains and extensive flooding in parts of Louisiana and Texas, many areas are still struggling to recover from last year’s record hurricane season and the February freeze.
