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Reporter's Notebook: Supreme Court leak rattles Washington like an 'October Surprise' — in May

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October arrived early in Washington.
Everyone in politics is well-versed in the art of the « October Surprise, » just before a consequential election in November. …

October arrived early in Washington. Everyone in politics is well-versed in the art of the « October Surprise, » just before a consequential election in November. An October Surprise is typically a leak of potentially damaging information — strategically timed — to undercut a candidate, just before voters head to the polls. Of course, we don’t know the precise motives of the extraordinary leak of the Supreme Court draft decision — in springtime. But it certainly qualifies as a « May Surprise. » A seminal leak of information so substantial it would rattle the political world. The unprecedented leak itself is seismic for the Supreme Court. But the fault lines from this convulsion run directly from the High Court itself, under 1st St., NE, in Washington, D.C., and to the center of the United States Capitol across the street. Pro-choice voters abhor the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion which would torpedo Roe v. Wade. But politics is all about opportunity. Democrats hope to weaponize the decision for in this fall’s midterms. Democrats believe they can use this as a wedge against Republicans. « Reproductive rights will be on the ballot and women will vote. They will make sure their voices are heard, » predicted Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., says he will force a vote soon to get all senators on the record about codifying Roe. « Every senator is now under the real glare of Roe v. Wade being repealed by the courts, » warned Schumer. « (They are) going to have to show which side they are on. » « We are focused like a laser on getting this vote shortly, » said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I. That’s not quite true. The actual vote which Schumer and others suggest is probably a procedural roll call of some sort. It’s likely one or two steps removed from a straight, up/down vote on the measure itself. So, Democrats may not in fact have everyone precisely on the record on that very bill regarding Roe.

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