Support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is teetering in his home state. Multiple polls show DeSantis would lose to former president Donald Trump if a GOP primary were held today.
The warning signs were there even before Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stepped onto the stage at a luxury hotel near Miami.
Ticket sales for the local Republican Party’s biggest annual fundraiser were down by two-thirds. One group of reliable supporters skipped the event entirely. The ballroom at the JW Marriott Turnberry Resort & Spa was far too big for the 380 people who showed up. Staff hustled to arrange paneled “air walls” around the room to make the space look smaller.
When DeSantis arrived at the gathering in early July, he gave what two people who attended described as a familiar and lackluster speech.
“It kind of came off like a bar mitzvah speech,” said a party member who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal from Miami-Dade GOP leaders. “The only time people really applauded was when he was introduced, and when he was done. In between it was clanging plates and people talking to each other.”
That evening offered a snapshot into a conundrum for the DeSantis campaign: While the governor runs on a platform to “make America Florida,” his support in the Sunshine State is showing signs of teetering. The governor’s uphill battle in his own state is a troubling sign at a moment when his campaign is struggling to regain momentum.
If a GOP primary were to be held today, multiple polls show DeSantis would resoundingly lose to former president Donald Trump in the state both men call home.
A March survey of nearly 1,500 voters living in the state by the University of North Florida found Republicans favored DeSantis over Trump by more than 30 points. DeSantis had the support of 59 percent of those questioned, compared with 28 percent for Trump. But more recent polling has consistently shown him trailing behind the former president.
The most recent poll by Florida Atlantic University found that of more than 900 Republican voters questioned, 54 percent would vote for Trump if a primary were held immediately, compared with 37 percent for the governor in a one-on-one matchup.
Political analysts say Florida offers a litmus test for how well DeSantis can appeal to a larger audience beyond early primary states. In attempting to win over conservative voters outside the state, some supporters now fear he may have turned away those who propelled him to success in Florida.
DeSantis’s allies note his overall approval rating in Florida remains strong and say DeSantis is still finding his footing as a presidential candidate.
“It’s too early to write him off,” said Republican state Rep. Spencer Roach, who represents the Fort Myers area. “There’s still plenty of time for him to catch fire and get the momentum going.”
But even Roach said DeSantis would find a more receptive audience if he focused his message on the economy rather than “the woke war and covid.”
Several former DeSantis supporters echoed those remarks, with many expressing particular concern over policies like the state’s new abortion law. Surveys show most Floridians support access to the procedure, but DeSantis backed a six-week abortion ban recently passed by the legislature. Republican detractors also point to his ongoing feud with Disney and the amount of time he is spending out of state.
All of those concerns were on display at the Miami-Dade County GOP’s Lincoln Day Dinner. Many in attendance had volunteered on the governor’s reelection campaign last year. He’d flipped the county from blue to red for the first time in 22 years. Eight months later, sentiments had shifted.
Some were disgruntled by a last-minute DeSantis campaign request that the local Republican Party pay $25,000 for the private plane he used to travel to Miami for the event, according to a person with direct knowledge of the demand. Members of the Log Cabin Republicans, the nation’s oldest conservative LGBTQ+ organization, decided not to attend after DeSantis released a campaign video in late June attacking Trump’s past support for the community.
The DeSantis campaign did not return a request for comment on the governor’s poll numbers in Florida or the private plane travel payment request to the Miami-Dade GOP.
“We believe he is setting the wrong tone for the direction of the Party,” Joe LaFauci, chairman of Log Cabin Republicans Florida, said in a statement. “To alienate common-sense gay and swing voters is to reject the same people who carried DeSantis in 2022.”
A turn right
DeSantis rode a wave of enthusiasm after his decisive 19-point reelection win over his Democratic challenger last November. Without even having announced his candidacy, he soared to the top of polls in the GOP presidential primary.
