Nikki Haley’s path to nomination depends on Trump succumbing to his legal problems. But if that happens, the delegates Trump will soon pile up would turn to almost anyone other than his current rival, writes Intelligencer’s Ed Kilgore.
Barring some fresh polling from South Carolina showing that Nikki Haley has significantly reduced Donald Trump’s massive lead in her home state, which holds its GOP presidential primary on February 24, the case for Haley’s ultimate victory depends on a very hazy scenario. There’s no real evidence that Haley has a prayer against Trump in any, much less all, of the 28 states that will hold nominating contests in March. This is especially true in delegate-rich places like California, where Trump leads by 68 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages; Florida, where Trump is up by 69 points; and Texas, where Trump is up by 64 points. So Haley is by necessity playing a very long game, as the Washington Examiner explains:
While Haley’s pathway to the presidency faces long odds, polls suggest the Republican Party is open to an alternative if Trump is convicted as he faces 91 indictments across four criminal cases. If Haley has enough funding to keep up her White House run, public sentiment could shift more in her favor.
“The Republican Party is facing the possibility that former President Trump could be convicted before Election Day,” said David Darmofal, a professor of political science at the University of South Carolina. “If he is and is sentenced to prison, the Republican Party could face a situation that no major party has faced and that a prominent party hasn’t faced since the Socialist Party’s Eugene Debs ran for president from prison in 1920 while serving a 10-year sentence for violating the Sedition Act of 1918.
