Might a movie break the record for most nods for a single movie?
The holidays are over, but the Christmas Adventurers no doubt are still celebrating. The “Marty Supreme” blimp rests, for now, in its hanger. Chloé Zhao is clearing her mind. And I still have that Neil Diamond song stuck in my head.
All of which brings us to the unveiling of nominations for the 98th Oscars on Thursday. Might Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” or Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” tie or even break the record for most nods for a single movie? Fourteen is the magic number, held by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land.” Somewhere, James Cameron is clutching his crown tightly.
Here are my predictions in key categories.Picture
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Possible surprise: “Weapons”
Possible snub: “It Was Just an Accident”
No “Wicked: For Good”? No “Avatar: Fire and Ash”? The pair of high-profile sequels failed to live up to their predecessors, critically and commercially, leaving the door open for the academy’s international contingent — 24% of Oscar voters live outside the United States — to wave the flags of their countries. The last two years we’ve had two international features nominated for best picture. “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” made the cut in 2024; “Emilia Pérez” and “I’m Still Here” found their way in last year. It’s possible we see a record three this year: France’s “It Was Just an Accident,” Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” and Norway’s “Sentimental Value.”
Voters do have other options for the back end of the 10-picture slate. “F1” looks on track to earn Oscar nods for film editing, sound and visual effects. Maybe that below-the-line love catapults it in. Zach Cregger’s “Weapons” earned a place at the Producers Guild, even with writer-director Cregger off filming “Resident Evil,” removing him from the awards circuit. Perhaps Aunt Gladys has been busy casting spells in her bedroom, working her magic on the film’s behalf, though I’m not sure how she’d obtain a personal item from more than 10,000 voters. She’d have to be busier than Diane Warren.Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Possible surprise: Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Possible snub: Panahi
The Directors Guild nominated Anderson, Coogler, Safdie, Zhao and del Toro. But the Oscar field has included one international director for seven straight years, making it likely that dissident filmmaker Panahi, a vocal critic of Iran’s authoritarian regime, earns a nomination for his blistering movie about resistance. That spot could also go to Joachim Trier, the director and co-writer of “Sentimental Value,” a family drama that sneaks in some sharp satire about the sorry state of filmmaking these days.Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Possible surprise: Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Possible snub: Moura
If Chalamet had won last year for playing Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown,” he would have become the youngest lead actor Oscar winner in history. That he lost to Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), still the only actor to win the trophy under the age of 30 (for “The Pianist”), adds a nice little twist to this bit of Oscar trivia. As it is, Chalamet seems well-positioned to eradicate voters’ bias against all the young dudes, his charismatic performance keeping you in the corner of “Marty Supreme’s” often repellent narcissist.
