As Iran’s regime escalates repression, the 2026 uprising exposes the limits of containment and opens an opportunity for decisive change.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that containment of the Islamic Republic has failed. The regime’s behavior proves he is right – and presents a rare opportunity to end the regime at a lower cost than perpetual containment and deterrence. There is a short window to shape what comes next in Iran – before executions begin and the repression accelerates.
Despite the multi-million nationwide uprising in Iran, the Islamic Republic has shot protesters point-blank in a complete communications shutdown.
Witness accounts sent to the outside via Starlink are egregious: The wounded are located in hospitals and shot in the head; families are asked for thousands of dollars in “bullet fees” to receive the body of their loved ones; and the extent of the massacre is beyond comprehension, with reports indicating an overflow of bodies in morgues and conservative estimates of 20,000 Iranians shot point-blank. In the diaspora, thousands of Iranians held gatherings in front of United States embassies and consulates, begging President Trump to take military action against the Islamic Republic.
Supporting regime change in Iran is a rational strategy to reduce long-term American costs and rebalance power.
Now that deterrence and compliance have failed, the threat environment must be altered. Decisive kinetic action must be paired with coordination through the Pahlavi-led alternative to mobilize – captured in Pahlavi’s latest message on January 20:
“The moment of returning to the streets will arrive: broader, stronger, more determined than ever, for the conquest of Tehran, for reclaiming Iran.”
The pairing of external support with internal mobilization offers a credible path to transform Iran from a spoiler state into a status-quo power, thereby eradicating containment costs, stabilizing the regional balance, and ultimately diminishing the geopolitical leverage of Russia and China without sustained military escalation.What outside support should look like
The Islamic Republic’s military was already dealt a blow with Operation Rising Lion – targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ chain of command on the first day – followed by Operation Midnight Hammer of the United States, using GBU-57 bunker busters against the Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites, which emphasized that the United States and Israel are prepared to impose real costs.
With the recent developments, the United States’ approach must evolve beyond a human-rights-only framework and openly support regime change.
