US Secretary of State also likely to discuss trade, Trump-Xi summit and tensions in South China Sea in talks with Chinese leaders during his first official trip to Beijing, analysts say
Heightened tensions over North Korea’s accelerated nuclear armaments programme, which pose a security dilemma for both Beijing and Washington, are expected to be the main focus during US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s first official visit to Beijing this weekend. The former chief executive of ExxonMobil’s trip to the Chinese capital, the first senior official in the Donald Trump administration to visit China, has been described by diplomats and pundits as the biggest test for Tillerson since he was confirmed as the United States’ top diplomat on February 1. Leaders in Beijing clearly have high hopes for Tillerson, who is tasked with “creating a positive environment” and paving the way for a much rumored summit between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping as early as next month. The US diplomat, who also placed North Korea on the top of his agenda during visits to Japan and South Korea over the past three days, is expected to have a hectic schedule in Beijing, including meeting Xi, Premier Li Keqiang, State Councilor Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. His visit comes as tensions on the Korean peninsula have reached an all-time high, with Pyongyang warning of an “actual war” and Wang Yi urging both North Korea and the US to rein in provocations to avoid a disastrous head-on collision. But privately, doubts and distrust run deep in Beijing over the predictability and reliability of Trump’s foreign policy that has yet to take shape, according to Chinese diplomats, especially its relations with China. There are also concerns over Tillerson’s ability to exert influence over the US president and former real estate mogul. “We are still scratching our heads to work out how to deal with Trump in the wake of the roller-coaster ride of China-US relations since he got elected,” one diplomat said. Trump’s protocol-breaking phone call with the independence-leaning Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen shortly after he was elected threw Beijing’s relations with Washington into disarray. After weeks in a standoff, both nations managed to stabilise their ties after Trump reaffirmed Washington’s decades-old commitment to the one-China policy during a phone call with Xi last month. Another diplomat said Trump had little regard for important traditions and past practices.“It’s like a nightmare coming true. In the Trump era, nothing seems impossible,” the diplomat said. Diplomatic observers caution against rosy expectations of breakthroughs during the talks in Beijing, citing deepening tensions between the two nations over a whole range of strategic, security and economic issues. Steve Tsang, the director of the London-based SOAS China Institute, said Tillerson’s visit would help put the two nations’ important relationship on a better footing, but it was unlikely to dispel their deep-rooted mistrust. He said the visit would also be a good opportunity for China to “ascertain Trump’s real intentions”. “Beijing doesn’t want a confrontation with Trump, but will want to know what it will cost to do business and make deals with Trump. But I doubt the Chinese Government can afford to trust Trump fully,” Tsang said. Michael Green, an Asia director on President George W. Bush’s National Security Council, said Tillerson would play a key role behind the scenes to coordinate the specifics of Xi’s reported visit to Trump’s lavish Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida early next month. He said Tillerson was also expected to discuss with Beijing the future of over 100 communications mechanisms between the two countries established under President Barack Obama. Beijing was apparently upset by Trump and his senior advisors who showed little interest in continuing with the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, a top-level series of meetings that have been held every year since 2006. “So what will be the framework for dialogue on strategic and economic issues? Tillerson can begin to frame that discussion,” said Green, who now works at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Yuan Peng, vice-president of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said Beijing and Washington had yet to work out a solution if Trump decided to abort the old mechanisms for regular high-level talks. “From China’s perspective, the fact that senior officials from both nations meet regularly itself is a positive achievement for bilateral ties. Beijing and Trump apparently have disagreements over whether it’s important that they can actually manage to reach any substantial agreements or get anything done,” he said. Experts also noted Beijing had doubts about Tillerson’s sway over Trump on key foreign policy decisions, even though it has been reported that the Secretary of State helped persuade the US president to accept the one-China policy. “The fact that it’s not clear how influential Tillerson is with Trump will make Beijing cautious,” said Tsang. “Tillerson is one of the ‘adults’ in the Trump Administration which remains dominated by tantrum throwing megalomaniacs, including Mr President himself. Can the ‘adults’ in such a set up manage to achieve anything more than preventing the tantrums wrecking havocs?” he said. Green at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies also noted Tillerson’s style, which was quiet but effective at ExxonMobil “does not always work in Washington”. “I think people in Asia and the US will be looking for him to set some strong themes the way Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis did during his first visit to Japan and Korea in early February,” he said. Tsang and other analysts said Beijing would have to work with Tillerson to try to remove potential pitfalls in relations with the Trump Administration. On the increasing tensions on the Korean peninsula, analysts said Beijing and Washington were unlikely to make much progress apart from reiterating their commitment to enhance cooperation to counter the North’s nuclear weapons programme. “Tillerson and his Chinese counterparts may emphasise the importance of working together to defuse tensions, but it is unlikely there will be any breakthroughs from the visit,” said Zhu Zhiqun, the director of the China Institute at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania. Zhu said Beijing would probably raise the issue of the controversial US anti-missile system deployed in South Korea, which Beijing says poses a threat to its national security, and the joint military exercise between Tokyo, Seoul and Washington. North Korea has markedly accelerated its nuclear programme in the past year with the aim of perfecting its nuclear weapons capabilities which could strike as far as the US. A study by the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington has depicted a rather gloomy picture, saying all policy options on the Korean peninsula were bad with most scenarios ranging from “dangerous to horrific”. “This process will continue to test the new administration. Given projected timelines in Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile development, President Trump could face an early decision on whether to shoot down or otherwise disable a North Korean long-range missile, very possibly triggering an even larger military crisis on the peninsula,” it said. Tillerson and Chinese officials are also expected to talk about trade and economic differences plus a growing rivalry in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Premier Li Keqiang told the National People’s Congress on Wednesday that American companies would fare worst in the event of a trade war with China, which Trump and his top advisers have threatened to unleash amid allegations of unfair trade practices. Li also said both sides should work together to create “opportunities rather than troubles” for Southeast Asian nations that were caught between the intense power play between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea. Jay Batongbacal, a law professor at the University of the Philippines, noted that tensions flared last year largely due to Beijing’s assertiveness to press its claims to the disputed waters in the South China Sea and Asia-Pacific nations were still wary of China’s growing military and economic clout. “It is good that China recognises that its interactions can be a potential ‘source of trouble’, but I also hope that China recognises that not all troubles necessarily arise because of that China-US interaction,” he said.
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