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米国務長官候補のティラーソン氏、対ロシアで強硬姿勢 上院公聴会

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NewsHub【1月12日 AFP】米上院外交委員会は11日、ドナルド・トランプ( Donald Trump )次期大統領が国務長官への起用を決めた米石油大手エクソンモービル( ExxonMobil )のレックス・ティラーソン( Rex Tillerson )前最高経営責任者(CEO)の人事承認に関する公聴会を開いた。親ロシア派との批判を受けている同氏は、ロシアに対する強硬姿勢を取り、同国は国際的に危険な存在であり米国の友好国にはなり得ないだろうとの見解を示した。
ティラーソン氏はロシアに関して「曇りのない目」を持って対処する意向を表明した一方で、ロシアへの経済制裁を支持するか否かの立場表明は拒否。さらに、冷戦( Cold War )時代の敵国だったロシアに対する次期政権の立場については、まだトランプ氏と協議していないことを認めた。
全キャリアをエネルギー産業界で過ごしてきたティラーソン氏は、ロシアのウラジーミル・プーチン( Vladimir Putin )大統領をはじめとする権威主義的な指導者とのビジネス上の関係をめぐり批判を受けている。
だが同氏は公聴会で、米政府の外交トップである国務長官として、バラク・オバマ( Barack Obama )大統領時代よりも強健な外交政策を推し進めると強調した。(c)AFP/Michael Mathes

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China Sends Aircraft Carrier Group Through Taiwan Strait

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NewsHub(BEIJING) — China said Wednesday it was committed to promoting peace and stability in Asia, even as it sent an aircraft carrier battle group through the Taiwan Strait amid heightened tensions between Beijing and the self-ruled island.
The statement in the preface to a Cabinet report on China’s policies on Asia-Pacific security cooperation follows heated criticism from the U. S., Japan and others over Beijing’s increasingly robust assertions of its maritime claims, particularly in the South China Sea.
The report made no direct reference to such concerns while casting Beijing as a force for economic development and conflict reduction.
“China is committed to promoting peace and stability in this region. It follows the path of peaceful development and the mutually beneficial strategy of opening up,” the report said.
“It has participated in regional cooperation in an all-round way and taken active steps in response to both traditional and non-traditional security challenges, contributing to lasting peace and common prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region,” it said.
The report reiterated China’s claims over South China Sea islands and waters, as well as territories in the East China Sea controlled by Japan. It also expressed strong opposition to the deployment by the U. S. and South Korea of an advanced missile defense system to counter threats from North Korea, saying that would “seriously damage the regional strategic balance and the strategic security interests of China and other countries in the region.”
However, the emphasis was firmly on China’s contributions to security and willingness to cooperate with others on “improving the regional security framework.”
“China has actively pushed for peaceful solutions to hotspot issues such as the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and the Afghanistan issue, and played its due role as a responsible major country,” the report said.
Despite such rhetoric, China’s rapid military modernization has raised concerns about its intentions, particularly regarding Taiwan, which it claims as its territory.
Earlier Wednesday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it was keeping an eye on China’s sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and its battle group as it passed through the 160 kilometer- (100 mile-) wide strait separating Taiwan from southeastern China.
A ministry statement said the Liaoning was traveling northwest along the center line dividing the strait and urged the public not to be alarmed.
China and Taiwan split amid civil war in 1949 and Beijing has never renounced its threat to use force if it considers that necessary to prevent the island’s permanent independence from the mainland.
Relations have deteriorated since Taiwanese elected independence-leaning President Tsai Ing-wen last year, and Chinese officials have warned of more turbulence ahead unless she endorses Beijing’s view that Taiwan is part of China.
China has been steadily ratcheting up pressure, discouraging Chinese tourists from visiting the island of 23 million and intervening to prevent its participation in international forums.
“Looking ahead in 2017, the development of cross-strait relations faces increased levels of uncertainty and the challenge of risk has risen,” Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Cabinet’s Taiwan Affairs Office, told reporters Wednesday.
Ma said he had no information on the Liaoning’s passage through the Taiwan Strait and referred questions on the matter to the Defense Ministry, which did not immediately respond.
The significance of the carrier’s passage through the strait was open to interpretation, said Zhao Gancheng, director of the Asia-Pacific Center at Shanghai’s Institute for International Studies.
“China has now acquired numerous means to pose threats to Taiwan. If the Taiwan side interprets it as a threat, that’s a matter for Taiwan,” said Zhao, adding such missions would grow more frequent as the Chinese navy gained new capabilities.
However, Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said the issue wouldn’t affect relations between the sides.
China’s navy “does not pose a threat to the security of this region or to neighboring countries,” said Liu, speaking at a news conference to discuss the Cabinet report.

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Taiwan urges calm as Chinese warship enters strait

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NewsHubTaiwan has urged its citizens to remain calm after a Chinese aircraft carrier entered the Taiwan Strait in a highly symbolic show of strength.
Taiwan’s defence ministry reported on Wednesday that China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier and accompanying naval vessels had gone into an area covered by the island’s air defence zone at 07:00 local time (23:00 GMT).
Taiwanese media said that F-16 fighter jets and other aircraft were dispatched to monitor the Chinese carrier group.
« The military is monitoring the whole situation and will act as necessary. We urge Taiwan’s people to be at ease, » the defence ministry said in a statement.
The Liaoning, a refitted Russian-made carrier, made its first live-fire exercise earlier this month in the Yellow Sea, the Bohai Sea and East China Sea.
By midday the aircraft carrier was moving north along the mainland’s coast, the ministry added.
« There is no need for us to overly panic, » the chairwoman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), which handles the island’s relationship with Beijing, said.
READ MORE: Taiwan slams Sao Tome’s decision to cut diplomatic ties
China has upped its military drills near the island in recent weeks after being incensed by a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to US President-elect Donald Trump, and by a subsequent transit stop by Tsai in the US.
It was the  first such contact  with Taiwan by a US president-elect or president since Jimmy Carter adopted the « one China » policy in 1979 and broke off formal diplomatic relations with the island.
The development comes while Tsai is visiting Nicaragua as part of a four-nation tour in Central America.
While the focus of her visit is to bolster ties with allies, her US stopovers are being closely watched with speculation she may make contact with Trump and his team. 
Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride, reporting from Beijing, said this comes on a significant day as China releases its white paper on how to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific.
« China has said there is nothing worrisome or intimidating about deploying the Liaoning, but Taiwan believes it is more than a threat, » he said.
McBride added that Tsai has been accused of failing to reign in those in Taiwan who have been calling for independence.
China has conflicting claims to parts of the South China Sea with Taiwan and several countries in Southeast Asia, and to an island chain in the East China Sea with Japan.
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province to be brought back into its fold. The US is the island’s most powerful ally and main arms supplier, despite having no official diplomatic relations since recognising Beijing in 1979.
Source:   News agencies

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Taiwan scrambles jets, navy vessels to ‘surveil & control’ passage of Chinese warships — RT News

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NewsHubChina’s Soviet-built ‘Liaoning’ aircraft carrier led warships through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, while returning from exercises in the South China Sea. Although Taiwan’s Defense Ministry stated that the carrier was not trespassing in the country’s territorial waters, it confirmed that it did enter its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the southwest.
In response, the Taiwanese military quickly deployed jets and navy ships to follow the Chinese boats as they traveled through the narrow body of water which lies between Taiwan and China, Defense Ministry spokesman Chen Chung-chi said, as cited by Reuters.
Responding to China’s movements, Taiwan’s top policymaker for China affairs urged Beijing to resume dialogue with Taipei, after official communication channels were shut down by China in June.
« I want to emphasize our government has sufficient capability to protect our national security. It’s not necessary to overly panic, » Chang Hsiao-yueh, minister for Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, said during a news briefing.
« On the other hand, any threats would not benefit cross-Strait ties, » she said. China’s Wednesday movements have led many to read the act as a statement that Beijing will back up its territorial claims to Taiwan with military means, if necessary.
Meanwhile, China has said that its ‘Liaoning’ aircraft carrier was taking part in drills to test weapons and equipment in the disputed South China Sea, adding that its movements complied with international law.
Beijing’s naval exercises have unnerved its neighbors in the region – including Taiwan, which China claims as its own – amid long-running territorial wrangles in the South China Sea. China claims most of the waters of the energy-rich disputed waterway, though Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam also have claims.
Taiwan’s scrambling of jets is the latest in an already tense relationship between Beijing and Taipei, and follows recent flare-ups between the two sides.
China expressed anger at Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen over the weekend, after she made a controversial stopover in the US, meeting with senior Republican lawmakers in Houston, Texas.
« We firmly oppose leaders of the Taiwan region, on the so-called basis of a transit visit, having any form of contact with US officials and engaging in activities that interfere with and damage China-US relations, » Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said on Monday, just hours after the meeting. He went on to urge “relevant US officials” to handle the Taiwan situation appropriately to avoid harming US-China relations.
China is suspicious of President Tsai, believing she wants to push for the formal independence of the island. It has warned of future turbulence if she fails to endorse Beijing’s view that Taiwan is part of China.
Last month, US President-elect Donald Trump found himself in the middle of the dispute, after accepting a congratulatory call from Tsai and questioning Washington’s commitment to Beijing’s ‘One China’ policy with Taiwan.
China and Taiwan split amid a civil war in 1949. Beijing has never renounced its threat to use force if necessary to prevent the island’s permanent independence from the mainland.

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Philippines won't raise South China Sea legal victory vs. China at ASEAN

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NewsHubThe Philippines won’t raise its recent arbitration victory against Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea during Asian summit talks that it will host this year, Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. said Wednesday. Yasay said pressing last year’s ruling at the annual meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations “is just simply counter-productive.” The Philippines intends to raise the ruling, which invalidated China’s historic claims under a 1982 U. N. treaty, in bilateral talks with Beijing in the future, Yasay said, stressing that the arbitration decision is final and won’t be changed by discussions at international conferences. “We are not going to raise this issue … because there is really no useful benefit,” Yasay said at a news conference. “This is a matter that we will be raising with China at some future time in bilateral talks and to do and involve others in the discussion of this decision is just simply counter-productive for our purposes.” “Now if any country would like to pursue their respective claims against China with respect to a disputed territory in the South China Sea, they can do so and perhaps use the decision of the arbitral tribunal as a precedent-setting case in pursuing the matter,” he said. The Philippines was previously one of the most vocal critics of China at the annual ASEAN meetings as Beijing asserted its vast territorial claims in the South China Sea. After China took control of disputed Scarborough Shoal in 2012 and blocked Filipinos from the rich fishing area, then President Benigno Aquino III brought his country’s territorial disputes with Beijing to international arbitration. China ignored the Philippine case and refused to recognize the outcome, which was heavily in favor of the Philippines. President Rodrigo Duterte, who succeeded Aquino in June, has taken dramatic steps to mend strained relations with China. He has also taken an antagonistic stance against the administration of outgoing President Barack Obama after the U. S. leader criticized his deadly crackdown on illegal drugs. As host of the ASEAN meetings this year, the Philippines is in a position to influence their focus and the joint communiques issued at the end of the conferences. China, the U. S. and Russia and other Western and Asian nations will join expanded meetings later in the year. Yasay said the Philippines will push for the faster completion of a long-delayed “code of conduct” between China and ASEAN to discourage aggressive actions that could ratchet up tensions in the South China Sea, a busy waterway for world trade. The Philippines wants the framework of the nonaggression pact to be completed within the first half of this year, Yasay said. The prospects for the signing of a legally binding regional code remain unclear. Philippine diplomats have said negotiations over the code have been stalled in the past by China while it covertly turned disputed reefs into artificial islands which can now be used by Beijing to better defend its territorial claims.

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Report: Hong Kong Human Rights Situation Worst Since 1997

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NewsHubAmnesty International has released its Hong Kong Annual Report reviewing the human rights of Hong Kong over the past year. It states that the city’s human rights situation has rapidly deteriorated in recent times and is at its worst levels since the handover back to Chinese rule in 1997.
“Hong Kong’s legal situation is a cause for concern,” the report said. “Hong Kongers’ human rights situation has violations on almost every front.”
The report cited several issues that happened during the course of the year but also some long lingering ones that have been before the courts over the last 12 months.
“There are escalating cases of violence against reporters and there are very, very confined spaces for press freedom or freedom of expression,” Raees Baig, chairwoman of Amnesty International Hong Kong, said on Wednesday. “If we do not do anything or we do not have any response from the government, we can’t project whether we are going to get worse.”
Self-censorship also became apparent when newcomer broadcaster ViuTV decided not to air an episode of its program that had planned to feature two pro-independence guests. In addition, new media outlets in Hong Kong, especially online-only news portals, are still not recognized by the government , and are refused access to the government press briefings and interviews.
Amnesty also criticized the Hong Kong government and prosecution authorities for the guilty verdicts against the three student leaders of the Umbrella Movement of 2014. Nathan Law, who subsequently became Hong Kong’s youngest-ever legislative councilor, was one of the guilty defendants. The human rights organization said the prosecutions were aimed at shutting down peaceful assembly, as well as indicative of vindictive motives on the government’s part.
“The prosecution of student leaders on vague charges smacks of political payback by the authorities,” said Mabel Au, director of Amnesty International Hong Kong. “The continued persecution of prominent figures of the Umbrella Movement is a blow to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly in Hong Kong.”
The local government has been widely criticized for its lack of response to the five missing Hong Kong-based booksellers, who inexplicitly turned up in the custody of Chinese authorities. The case directly relates to an infringement on Hong Kong citizens’ rights to liberty and security, and the situation clearly demonstrated China’s contempt for  due process, as well as Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy and rule of law. This concept was further extended to Beijing’s intervention in Hong Kong’s Legislative Council oath-taking saga, where controversially, Beijing stepped in to make an interpretation of the city’s Basic Law, a mini constitution of sorts, before the local courts were to make a ruling that would determine the fate of two democratically elected, independence-leaning legislators. An interpretation by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee effectively nullified any independent court ruling, and eliminated the two from the city’s Legislative Council.
Additionally, Amnesty has previously raised concerns over Hong Kong’s legal obligation to protect asylum seekers. Several senior members of the Hong Kong government, including CY Leung, have made statements that suggested withdrawing from the United Nations Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman, or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (UNCAT). In a letter to Leung, Amnesty International said that the withdrawal would be unprecedented and a dangerous step showing complete disregard for international law. The government made the suggestion to circumvent false torture protection claimants in Hong Kong.

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© Source: http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/report-hong-kong-human-rights-situation-worst-since-1997/
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Bitcoin falls 10% as China plans to investigate exchanges

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NewsHubThe price of bitcoin fell by around 10 percent after Chinese authorities announced plans to inspect bitcoin enterprises.
The People’s Bank of China published an announcement this morning that it will carry out site inspections on January 17 to check whether enterprises dealing in bitcoin have the correct licenses, have implemented anti-money laundering systems and whether there is market manipulation.
Following the announcement, the digital currency fell from around $915 to as low as $784.56. Bitcoin is currently hovering around the $806 mark.
Chinese investors dominate the global bitcoin volume trade. For some time, Chinese regulators have been concerned about bitcoin and whether it is having a negative effect on the renminbi.
Last week, the People’s Bank of China met with three of the country’s largest bitcoin exchanges to talk about market regulations.
Charles Hayter, chief executive and founder of digital currency comparison website CryptoCompare, said today’s announcement was a « ratcheting of the rhetoric » from the Chinese authorities.
« Instead of ‘we’re watching’ you it’s now ‘we’re investigating’ you, » he told CNBC.
« The intentions of the Chinese state are clearer and it looks like they’re trying to bring the Chinese bitcoin exchanges to heel – whether they are looking to make an example is yet to be seen.  »
Hayter added that the move may have positive impacts in the long term, as it may bring more respectability to the industry as it matures.
« But in the short term this could affect volumes which have been one of the key drivers of the recent rally.  »
Bitcoin had been steadily rallying through 2016 and appreciated to more than $1,100 on January 5th, near to its record high, but the digital currency subsequently crashed, dropping back to the $900 level.
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China, Fanning Patriotism, Adds 6 Years to War with Japan in History Books

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NewsHubBEIJING — For generations, the “Eight-Year War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression” has been ingrained in the minds of Chinese schoolchildren. Revolutionary hymns evoked the bloody years, from 1937 to 1945, of what is known outside China as the Second Sino-Japanese War. Documentaries denounced Japan ’s “eight years of belligerence.”
Now the war is getting a new name, and an extended time frame.
In a move aimed at stirring up nationalism and support for the ruling Communist Party, President Xi Jinping’s government has ordered educators to rewrite textbooks to describe the conflict as the “14-Year War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression,” lasting from 1931 to 1945, the authorities said in a statement on Wednesday.
Under the decision, the Second Sino-Japanese War will be described as having started in the fall of 1931, when the Imperial Japanese Army invaded Manchuria. Previously, the war’s beginning had been traced to the Marco Polo Bridge incident, a skirmish in 1937 between Japanese forces and Chinese troops along a rail line southwest of Beijing that marked the beginning of full-scale conflict.
The Chinese Ministry of Education said the decision to add six years to the war sought to promote patriotic education and to highlight the Communist Party’s “core role” in resisting Japanese fascism in the prelude to World War II. It also seemed intended to rally support for the party among young people as Mr. Xi vigorously promotes Communist history and thought in schools.
Zhang Lifan, a historian in Beijing, said the decision to revise the length of the war was justified from a historical perspective. But he said it would also have political benefits for the party and would encourage anti-Japanese sentiment.
“Chinese leaders still have a Cold War mentality,” he said. “They’ve tried to conjure up imaginary enemies in the world.”
Mr. Xi has worked in recent years to enhance the image of the Communists and their achievements in World War II, even though many historians believe it was the Chinese Nationalists, not the Communists, who did most of the fighting.
The party had not previously emphasized the fight against the Japanese from 1931 to 1937, when Communist forces were in disarray as they fought a civil war with the Nationalists. During that time, the Nationalists led efforts to resist the Japanese and negotiate truces. It was not until 1937 that the Communists joined forces with the Nationalists to fight an increasingly belligerent Imperial Japanese Army.
Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese politics at King’s College London, called the textbook revision a “tidying up of history.” He said the revised account exaggerated the Communists’ accomplishments.
“It demonstrates this continuing keenness by the party now to seek sources of legitimacy wherever it can,” he said, “and reveals more insecurity than real strength.”
The change will probably ruffle feathers in Japan, China’s longtime rival, as the countries jockey for influence in Asia and struggle to overcome the legacy of World War II, more than 70 years after the global conflict ended.
Japanese officials did not respond to requests for comment on Wednesday. But Masumi Kawasaki, a Shanghai-based correspondent for Sankei Shimbun, a right-leaning daily, wrote in an article that Mr. Xi’s government was “trying to heighten its anti-Japanese stance through history education.”
Mr. Xi has accused Japan of distorting history , and the Chinese state news media has criticized Tokyo’s efforts to revise textbooks , saying it has played down atrocities by Japanese soldiers.
When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan visited Pearl Harbor last month, Chinese internet users brimmed with outrage, saying Mr. Abe had not done enough to apologize to China for Japan’s actions during World War II.
In Beijing, many people applauded the government’s decision to revise the textbooks, which are filled with references to wars against “aggression” by foreign forces. The Korean War, for example, is known as the war to resist United States aggression and aid Korea.”
“The Japanese have also altered their textbooks, why can’t we?” said Wang Yalin, 30, a musician. Still, he said, the change would most likely fuel anti-Japanese sentiment in China.
Zhao Feng, 38, a tailor, acknowledged that the relationship between the countries had deteriorated. But he said it was important to note the earlier date of Japan’s invasion of China. “The occupation started much earlier,” he said.
On social media, some were more skeptical of the government’s motives.
“Don’t use history education for political ends,” one person wrote on Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter. “The most important thing is to learn the truth.”

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© Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/world/asia/china-japan-textbooks-war.html
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Samsung heir becomes suspect in South Korea corruption scandal

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NewsHubSamsung heir Lee Jae-yong has become a criminal suspect in a widening probe into the corruption and influence-peddling scandal engulfing the impeached , prosecutors said Wednesday. Lee, vice chairman of Samsung Electronics and the son of the Samsung Group chairman Lee Kun-hee, would be quizzed as a “suspect” in connection to bribery, prosecutors said. “We have decided to question Lee tomorrow morning… as a suspect,” Lee Kyu-Chul, spokesman for the team of special prosecutors investigating the scandal, told reporters. The affair centres on , who is accused of using her ties to Park to coerce top firms into “donating” tens of millions of dollars to two non-profit foundations which Choi then used as her personal ATMs. Samsung was the biggest contributor to the foundations. It is also accused of separately giving millions of euros to Choi to bankroll her daughter’s equestrian training in Germany in a bid to curry favour. Prosecutors have for months questioned Lee and other senior Samsung officials. The officials reportedly argued that although they were coerced to offer money, they sought no favours in return and thus the payments were not a bribe. Spokesman Lee said prosecutors “left open the possibility” of formally arresting the Samsung scion later. Prosecutors are investigating whether Samsung bribed Choi in order to win state approval for a controversial merger which it sought in 2015. The merger of two Samsung group units – Cheil Industries and Samsung C&T – was seen as a crucial step towards ensuring a smooth third-generation power transfer to Lee Jae-yong. It was criticised by many, who said it wilfully undervalued Samsung C&T’s stocks. But the National Pension Service (NPS) – a major Samsung shareholder – voted in favour of the deal and it eventually went through. Prosecutors have raided multiple Samsung offices as well as the NPS in connection with the scandal. The fund – the world’s third largest pension fund – is overseen by the welfare ministry. A former welfare minister was arrested last month for allegedly pressuring NPS officials to vote in favour of the Samsung deal. Park, who stands accused of colluding with Choi to extract money from the firms, was impeached by parliament last month but denies any criminal wrongdoing. The Constitutional Court is currently reviewing the validity of her impeachment. Choi is on trial for charges including coercion and abuse of power.

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Why would the US not shoot down a North Korean missile?

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NewsHubUS Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Tuesday that if launches do not pose a risk to the US or an ally, « it may be more to our advantage… to gather intelligence from the flight.  »
In his new year’s address , North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un said the country had « entered the final stages of preparation for the test launch » of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could threaten the US mainland.
This week, Pyongyang upped the threat , saying it could launch such a missile « at any time and anywhere.  »
Intelligence gathering
The US and other observers « can learn a lot » from any missile test, said Tal Inbar, a North Korea expert at the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies.
« We can analyze the trajectory and conclude some insight about the power of the engines and the amount of fuel, and estimate the potential range of the missile.  »
If it is possible to retrieve the missile or rocket from the sea, as South Korea did in February last year , Inbar said there « is a wealth of intelligence in such debris.  »
He added that it was generally unwise to shoot down any missile that does not pose a threat as not only would you lose the ability to examine the missile and its flight, « if you try and shoot it down and miss, that’s a huge PR embarrassment.  »
Long road to ICBMs
Despite repeated claims about its capability to strike at the US mainland, North Korea has never successfully tested an ICBM, and experts have cast doubt on how close Pyongyang is to having the technology to even attempt it.
Even the country’s mid-range missile — the Musudan — « barely works, » according to aerospace and rocket expert John Schilling, « exploding in seven out of eight tests so far.  »
Pyongyang’s purported ICBMs, Schilling wrote in a report in December , « don’t exist, except as parade mock-ups and engineering test articles.  »
« When they are completed, they will require years of flight testing to reach operational status, with no doubt many more catastrophic failures, » he said.
Inbar disagreed, saying all the evidence points to the country’s ICBMs being « real missiles and a real threat.  »
« But the question remains of what would be the reliability of a missile that has never flown before, » he said.
He added that Pyongyang may be loathe to test such a missile as doing so would deplete its arsenal of a weapon that is complex and expensive to build.
According to North Korean state media, the country last year successfully tested engines for launching ICBMs, including a solid-fuel rocket engine that would allow a missile to be launched quickly with little forewarning.
It has also carried out multiple submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tests and, according to US intelligence, « probably » possesses the capability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for placing on an ICBM.
Space tech
Experts say North Korea has been using its space program — which Pyongyang claims is peaceful — to covertly test this technology.
In February 2016, the North said it successfully launched a satellite into space , but a senior US defense official told CNN the satellite was « tumbling in orbit » and « incapable of functioning in any useful way.  »
According to a report by the Arms Control Association , all North Korean satellite launches have used rockets that « employed low-thrust engines in the upper stages, which would not provide sufficient power if the rocket were to fly on a ballistic missile trajectory.  »
Like Schilling, the report cast doubts on the viability of North Korea’s ICBM technology, pointing out that of the two missiles shown off in public « neither has been flight-tested, and North Korea has not developed and tested a re-entry vehicle capable of withstanding the thermal and mechanical rigors of re-entry into the atmosphere at ICBM velocities.  »
Other threats
While North Korea may not be on the verge of launching an ICBM, this does not mean Pyongyang isn’t capable of causing absolute devastation. The country has a growing nuclear stockpile , as well as up to 5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons , according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).
Last year saw a marked uptick in mid-range missile tests, of the type that could strike Tokyo or Seoul, home to a combined 23 million people, as well as tens of thousands of US troops.
While Washington and Seoul are working to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) in South Korea, its future under a Donald Trump presidency is uncertain.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the US-based East Asia Nonproliferation Program, told CNN last year that North Korean simultaneous missile testing seemed to indicate it was trying to find a way to bypass THAAD’s defenses .
Developments in Pyongyang’s SLBM systems also pose a threat to its neighbors, as missiles launched from underwater are far harder to detect .
While the danger posed by ICBMs may be overstated, North Korea’s conventional and nuclear threat to its neighbors is profound, and may be why Trump is left with few options other than sitting down with Kim Jong Un .
If North Korea is hoping for just such a meeting, as some analysts have argued , Inbar said it is « logical to assume » that Kim will want to test an ICBM as soon as possible.
« What he will put on the table will be the basis for the negotiations, (so Kim) has to show his cards, » he said. « If he is ready from a technical point of view, I would expect to see a launch soon. « 

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