There doesn’t appear to be any military mobilization in North Korea that might indicate widespread preparations for war, experts said Thursday.
North Korea ‘s specific threat issued this week of test-firing ballistic missiles into waters off the U. S. Pacific territory of Guam — and flying over Japan — is perhaps more theater and mischief than anything else, a former CIA analyst said Thursday.
«By constructing this whole scenario in the way they have, they’ve opted to go for maximum drama, » said former Central Intelligence Agency analyst Robert Carlin, now a visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. He spoke on a press conference call arranged by 38 North, a think tank specializing in North Korea at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Added Carlin, «In other words, as this drags out day by day, there will be more dramatic developments and statements and events, and I think that probably suits them (the North Korean regime) fine. They’d like as much drama surrounding this as they can.»
At the same time, there doesn’t appear to be any military mobilization underway in North Korea that might indicate widespread preparations for war, experts said.
Carlin, who also served as chief of the Northeast Asia division at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, said the population in North Korea does not appear to be seriously mobilized about the threat and potential repercussions.
«Almost surprising, if you look at the radio and television [and] daily news, it’s pretty normal, » he said. «And they are still mostly concentrating on economic themes — not much in terms of mobilizing themselves in preparation for a crisis with the Americans.»
Joseph Bermudez, a 38 North analyst and founder of KPA Associates, agreed that based on what’s known today there are no signs of preparations within North Korea for a war mobilization effort.
«I don’t see any significant signs of mobilization of the populace in North Korea, » said Bermudez.
