Teams loaded up on offense early during the three-day affair, including five QBs in the first half of Round 1. What are the other big takeaways from the 2021 draft?
By most measures, NFL offenses last year produced their best season in the history of pro football. Never had the collective environment been more conducive to scoring, especially via the pass, and new records were set for points, touchdown throws and completion percentage. So after taking three months to analyze their rosters and project trends, decision-makers voiced a full-throated response during the 2021 draft: We need more! Teams loaded up on quarterbacks, receivers and offensive linemen during the early portions of the three-day affair. Never had there been more passers (eight), or offensive tackles (14) selected during the first three rounds. The total of 15 receivers drafted over that period was tied for fourth-most since the common draft era began in 1967. A reasonable person might suggest a focus on defensive players to counter the trend, but there has been nothing equitable or organic about the NFL’s shift toward the pass over the decades. The 2020 season produced a new twist — a significant increase in tolerance for offensive holding — and most decision-makers accept that the league is willing and able to maintain the inherent competitive imbalance between the two sides of the ball. General managers dipped into a deep cornerback class, drafting a record 16 of them through the first three rounds. But let’s face it: By the end of the second round, they had moved on to snatching backup quarterback prospects. No lie. A mini-run on passers between pick Nos.64-67 crystalized how far the league had shifted. NFL quarterback curation has undergone a massive swing during the past few decades, moving almost exclusively to the first round of the draft. In 2020,80% of teams played at least one quarterback who was originally a first-round pick, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. A similar percentage can be projected for 2021. This draft’s top five quarterbacks — Trevor Lawrence ( Jacksonville Jaguars), Zach Wilson ( New York Jets), Trey Lance ( San Francisco 49ers), Justin Fields ( Chicago Bears) and Mac Jones ( New England Patriots) — all sailed off the board before the midpoint of the first round. History tells us that some of them will fail. But the now-annual stampede to corral anyone who might have a chance to succeed ensures bleak odds of finding a good starter at any point afterwards. Of the past 36 quarterbacks drafted in the second or third rounds, dating back to 2006, only four have made the Pro Bowl. Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans can dream all they want about a moment when Kyle Trask (No.64 overall) takes over for starter Tom Brady, The Minnesota Vikings can certainly hope that Kellen Mond (No.66) might one day challenge Kirk Cousins. And the Houston Texans might well love Davis Mills (No.67). But based on recent trends, ESPN analytics suggest there is no more than an 11% chance that any of them will become a starter, much less someone who can win games. For all practical purposes, that means the Buccaneers, Vikings and Texans all drafted backups in spots where teams historically have expected to find starters at any other position. We would all be smarter, and less disappointed in the coming years, if we viewed them through that lens. High-end starters such as the Seattle Seahawks ‘ Russell Wilson, drafted in the 2012 third round, are the rare exception. Brady, famously selected by the Patriots in sixth round of the 2000 draft, is a relic of long-gone roster-building structure. The NFL has moved so far toward the passing game that backup quarterbacks are worth more draft capital than all but the best defensive prospects. So goes my big takeaway from the 2021 draft, which largely returned to its traditional format after a homebound detour in 2020. Commissioner Roger Goodell’s iconic leather chair traveled with him to a stage constructed off Lake Erie in Cleveland, but the thousands of (masked) fans and celebrity appearances signaled the NFL’s continuing emergence from COVID-19 protocols. What follows are the remainder of my thoughts on this draft, in rapid-fire fashion. Marty Smith gives a live hit from Trevor Lawrence’s draft party and is interrupted by Trevor Lawrence himself.
