Unlike most of Netflix’s original movies, the Leonardo DiCaprio/Jennifer Lawrence comedy would have been a big hit in theaters too.
Adam McKay’s black comedy/political satire Don’t Look Up had a strong “opening weekend” with around 111.03 million hours logged among Netflix subscribers over its December 24-December 26 debut. That translates into around 6.618 billion minutes or around 46.9 million viewings of the 142-minute Leonardo DiCaprio/Jennifer Lawrence film (about tied with 45 million for Sandra Bullock’s Bird Box over Christmas 2018). The R-rated farce, about humanity reacting with apathy and/or incompetence toward a planet-killing meteor racing to Earth, stars two of the biggest movie stars around along with appearance from Meryl Streep, Ariana Grande, Timothée Chalamet and many others. Unlike most big Netflix original films, I’d argue it would have been a hit in theaters too. Most of Netflix’s big movies have been approximations of the kind of old-school studio programmers for which audiences have mostly deserted theatrically (partially because of streaming competition). But Don’t Look Up would have been a theatrical hit Non-IP (or new-to-you adaptations) like Dwayne Johnson’s Red Notice, Sandra Bullock’s Birdbox, Mark Wahlberg’s Spenser Confidential or Will Smith’s Bright would have struggled if they were expected to draw an active theatrical audience in a size relative to their respective budgets. The “go to the movies just to see a movie featuring people I like with a good high concept” audience migrated, almost overnight in late 2015/early 2016, to streaming or at-home/non-theatrical avenues. Concurrently, the main draw for theatrical attendance became marquee characters over movie stars or even IP. Katniss Everdeen > Hunger Games without Jennifer Lawrence’s fiery protagonist. Taron Egerton as Elton John > Taron Egerton as Robin Hood. Angelina Jolie as Maleficent > Angelina Jolie in Eternals. Tom Holland as Spider-Man >>>>> Tom Holland in anything else. Even Dwayne Johnson, one of the closest things we’ve got to a “the star is the franchise” draw, usually requires a decent IP (like Rampage > Baywatch) to soar highest. It’s why Will Smith in Bad Boys for Life, Suicide Squad and Aladdin (where he plays the Genie like he’s making a sequel to Hitch) are huge hits while nobody shows up for Collateral Beauty, The Gemini Man and King Richard flop.
