Kyiv March 31, 2:19 a.m.
Moscow March 31, 2:19 a.m.
Washington March 30, 7:19 p.m.
One American official said …
Kyiv March 31, 2:19 a.m. Moscow March 31, 2:19 a.m. Washington March 30, 7:19 p.m. One American official said there was “now persistent tension” between the Russian president and his Defense Ministry. Strikes were reported around the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv, and Russian officials offered contradictory assessments of the progress in peace talks. Dan Bilefsky and Julian E. Barnes A day after inconclusive peace talks, pessimism that Russia would tame its punishing attacks in Ukraine was growing on Wednesday, amid mixed signals from the Kremlin and U.S. intelligence showing that aides had misinformed President Vladimir V. Putin about the war, fearful of his reaction. According to declassified U.S. intelligence, the misinformation has created mistrust and stoked tensions between Mr. Putin and his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle. American officials said that Mr. Putin’s strict isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly castigate advisers had contributed to him getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces, apparently leaving him genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine or that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action. The release of the classified information was part of a monthslong campaign of information warfare by the Biden administration and U.S. intelligence services to counter Russian propaganda. It could not be independently verified. Continued fighting in parts of Ukraine also underscored doubts about Russia’s intentions. Local officials reported new attacks on the outskirts of Kyiv, the capital, and the northern city of Chernihiv, two areas where Russia had said this week that it would sharply reduce combat operations. And there was also a contradiction between the positive language used by Russia’s chief negotiator about the peace talks in Istanbul and comments from officials and war supporters in Moscow. Here are other developments: The humanitarian situation on the ground in Ukraine is worsening. More than four million people have fled the country since the Russian invasion began, including two million children, according to the latest figures from the United Nations refugee agency and UNICEF. In Mariupol, the besieged strategic port city in the south and one of the worst-hit places of the war, new satellite imagery released Tuesday showed hundreds of people lining up outside a supermarket amid food shortages. Concerns are growing that Russia is trying to starve the population to break its will. Germany began preparing for eventual shortages of natural gas, as officials pointed to growing concerns that Russia could cut off deliveries unless payments were made in rubles. The Russian currency, the ruble, made an enormous rebound to nearly its prewar value, bolstered by the talks in Istanbul and by the Russian central bank’s measures to support it. A NASA astronaut and two Russian counterparts landed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday after departing from the International Space Station in a Russian spacecraft. The space station is one of the few places where day-to-day cooperation between the United States and Russia continues. Anton Troianovski, Megan Specia and Julian E. Barnes Belying its claims of de-escalation, Russia increased bomb and artillery attacks in Ukraine on Wednesday and sent conflicting signals about the prospects for peace, suggesting new tensions in the Kremlin hierarchy about the course of the war. The contradictory messaging came as a newly declassified U.S. intelligence assessment suggested that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been misinformed about the war’s trajectory by subordinates, who were fearful of his reaction to the Russian military’s struggles and setbacks. The intelligence, according to multiple American officials, showed Mr. Putin’s isolation and what appeared to be growing tension between him and the Ministry of Defense, including with his defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin inner circle and had been rumored to be a possible successor one day to Mr. Putin. It was not clear whether the release of the declassified intelligence was intended to sow anxiety within Mr. Putin’s circle as part of a broader information battle between the United States and Russia over Ukraine, the source of the worst tensions between the two nuclear powers since the Cold War. Nor was it clear if the intelligence was accurate. But American intelligence officials have proved right so far in their assessments of Mr. Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine, beginning with the Russian troop buildup along its borders last year that culminated in the Feb.24 invasion. White House officials said that they had released the intelligence to share what they said was a “full understanding” of how Mr. Putin had miscalculated. “We believe he’s being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions,” Kate Bedingfield, the White House communications director, told reporters. Asked about the declassified assessment during a trip to Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said it was not surprising that Mr. Putin was ill-informed. “One of the Achilles’ heels of autocracies,” he said, “is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power. And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.” The latest assessment also appeared to track with the mixed messages from the Kremlin on Wednesday about peace talks with Ukraine this week in Istanbul. The chief Russian negotiator described them as promising, but was basically contradicted by the Kremlin’s top spokesman. New Russian attacks in Ukraine, on the northern city of Chernihiv and the suburbs of Kyiv, also appeared to reflect disarray in Kremlin messaging, coming one day after the Russian military said it was de-escalating in those areas. They suggested that Mr. Putin might be stalling for time, redeploying his invasion forces elsewhere in the country and girding for a protracted conflict. Mr. Putin’s ultimate aim, however, remains murky. With the war about to enter its sixth week, its calamitous economic and humanitarian impact has widened. Germany has taken the first steps toward rationing natural gas, in anticipation of Russia potentially cutting off deliveries; the total number of Ukrainian refugees has surpassed four million — half of them children; and the United Nations is forecasting the most dire world hunger crisis since World War II. Ukraine and Russia are ordinarily major suppliers of the world’s wheat and other grains. The Chernihiv region, which extends to the border with Belarus, appeared to have been targeted with intense Russian strikes early Wednesday, hours after Russia had vowed to sharply reduce combat in that area and near Kyiv. Both were early targets of the Russian invaders, who were stymied by intense and unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian resistance. “Yesterday, the Russians publicly stated that they were reducing their offensive actions and activity in the Chernihiv and Kyiv areas,” the Chernihiv governor, Vyacheslav Chaus, said in a statement posted on the Telegram social media app. “Do we believe that? Of course not.” Mr. Chaus said that “civil infrastructure has been destroyed again” by Russian strikes. “Libraries, shopping malls and other facilities have been destroyed, and many houses have been destroyed,” he said. “Because, in fact, the enemy roamed Chernihiv all night.” In Kyiv, the regional military administration said in a Wednesday post on its Telegram channel that “more than 30 shellings by Russian troops of housing estates and social infrastructure” in the Kyiv region had been recorded over the previous 24 hours. The mixed messaging from Russia on Wednesday raised questions about whether progress in the peace talks was real. The lead Russian negotiator in the talks, Vladimir Medinsky, said on Russia’s state television that they appeared to be verging on a breakthrough. Mr. Medinsky said Ukraine’s proposal to declare neutrality, among what he called other concessions, represented its readiness for “building normal and, I hope, good neighborly relations with Russia.” That language clashed markedly with hard-line rhetoric emanating from Moscow, where supporters of the war, who do not consider Ukraine to be a legitimate country, denounced Mr. Medinsky’s diplomacy as bordering on traitorous. “Any talks with Nazis before your boot is on their throat are perceived as weakness,” Vladimir Solovyov, a popular state television host, said on his YouTube show, reprising the Kremlin’s false characterization of the Ukrainian government. “You cannot meet with them or talk to them.” And the Kremlin’s chief spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, was far more cautious in his own comments than Mr. Medinsky. He said that Ukraine’s willingness to put some proposals in writing was a “positive factor,” but that “we do not see anything very promising or any breakthroughs.” Russia first signaled last week that it was recalibrating the aims of what Mr. Putin has described as a “special military operation” in Ukraine, no longer focusing on seizing Kyiv and other important cities in the north and west of the country but instead on securing the eastern region, known as the Donbas. Russian-backed separatists have been fighting there since 2014. The Russian Defense Ministry has cast its decision to wind down military operations around Kyiv as a good-faith gesture of de-escalation, but it appeared to be an attempt to explain away a battlefield defeat. On Wednesday, the ministry said Russian forces around Kyiv were “regrouping,” although that assertion could not be independently confirmed. And it claimed that all along, the aim of gathering forces near Kyiv had not been to take the city but to tie up and weaken Ukrainian troops in the area. “All these goals were achieved,” the ministry said in a statement, adding that it would now focus on “the final stage of the operation to liberate” the Donbas area. The secretary of Ukraine’s national security council, Oleksiy Danilov, said Wednesday that at least part of the Russian military’s assertions appeared to be accurate. Some Russian units were relocating to eastern Ukraine and “the enemy is intensifying its formations there,” he said. But Mr. Danilov cautioned that it would be premature to conclude that Russia had abandoned a push toward the capital, even if it was relocating some troops. In the Donetsk part of Donbas, fighting escalated on Wednesday, the Ukrainian military said in a statement, as Russian forces “intensified fire and assault operations” with air and missile strikes. Ukraine’s military also reported Russian shelling and bomb strikes in the eastern city of Kharkiv, one of the invasion’s early targets. Casualties in the war are difficult to confirm. The United Nations, which keeps a daily tally, said Wednesday that at least 1,189 people had been killed so far, although that is almost certainly an undercount. The possible legal consequences for Russia over its targeting of civilian structures in Ukraine — a potential war crime — moved forward on Wednesday with the formation of a United Nations panel of inquiry. The three-person panel, named by the U.N. Human Rights Council, will “establish the facts, circumstances and root causes” of any crimes arising from the invasion, the council said. Amid the litany of negative news, there was one potential bright spot: A NASA astronaut returned to Earth on Wednesday with two Russian colleagues, suggesting that despite their antipathy over the crisis in Ukraine, the United States and Russia could still collaborate in space. Anton Troianovski reported from Istanbul, Megan Specia from Krakow, Poland, and Julian E. Barnes from Washington. Reporting was contributed by Andrew E. Kramer from Kyiv; Valerie Hopkins from Lviv, Ukraine; Melissa Eddy from Berlin; Ivan Nechepurenko from Istanbul; Shashank Bengali from London; Kenneth Chang from New York; Lara Jakes from Algiers and Nick Cumming-Bruce from Geneva. Cassandra Vinograd Russia’s defense ministry announced a cease-fire and humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians from the besieged city of Mariupol to central Ukraine, starting on Thursday morning. The officials asked for the United Nations and the Red Cross to participate. There was no immediate confirmation from Ukrainian officials. Several previous cease-fires and attempts to evacuate civilians from the starving, decimated city have failed because of ongoing fighting. Nick Cumming-Bruce Reporting from Geneva The United Nations top human rights body on Wednesday appointed a commission to investigate accusations of war crimes and other abuses committed in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to identify the people responsible. The three-person panel, named by the U.N. Human Rights Council on Wednesday, was appointed for an initial period of a year to “establish the facts circumstances and root causes” of any crimes. The announcement followed a resolution passed early this month by the Human Rights Council, creating a commission of inquiry into the war. “I think it’s really important,” Philippe Sands, a professor of law at University College London and a prominent international lawyer, said of the new commission. “It can provide an authoritative base of information on which others can then take things forward at the national and international level.” Ukrainian leaders and the U.S. government have accused Russian forces of war crimes. The Russian government has denied that its military has purposely targeted civilians, despite witness accounts, photos, videos and satellite imagery demonstrating the destruction of civilian centers, including apartments and hospital buildings. The panel’s formation adds to a surge of international activity aimed at achieving accountability for international crimes committed in Ukraine. The International Criminal Court, the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe and around 10 countries have started investigations into the war. Ukraine has endorsed an appeal, circulated in early March by a long list of former heads of government and international lawyers, calling for the creation of an international tribunal to try to ensure that Russia’s leadership does not escape accountability for its aggression. At least 1,189 civilians have been killed since the start of the invasion and more than 10 million people displaced from their homes, Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. human rights chief, said in a statement to the Human Rights Council on Wednesday, laying out the human toll of the conflict. U.N. officials have said the actual toll is likely much higher. “The terror and agony of the Ukrainian people is palpable and is being felt around the world,” Ms. Bachelet said, reporting attacks on at least 50 hospitals and indiscriminate bombardments that may constitute war crimes. The council picked Erik Mose, a Norwegian judge and former president of the international criminal tribunal that prosecuted perpetrators of Rwanda’s genocide, to chair the new panel’s investigations. Its other members are Jasminka Dzumhur, a former judge and now a human rights ombudsperson in Bosnia, and Pablo de Greiff of Colombia, a veteran adviser on justice issues to international organizations, and the director of the transitional justice program at New York University. Like other commissions of inquiry covering crises, such as the civil war in Syria, much of the panel’s work is expected to focus on war crimes and crimes against humanity. But its mandate also calls for investigation of crimes “in the context of the aggression against Ukraine.” That positions the panel to examine and provide evidence of the crime of aggression, established as an offense in international law at the Nuremberg trials in 1945, partly on the insistence of Soviet lawyers. Investigating and prosecuting war crimes and crimes against humanity is a process that can drag on for years, and often snares only middle-ranking field commanders. By contrast, the crime of aggression, Professor Sands said, “is the only one that leads straight to the leadership.” The I.C.C., however, lacks jurisdiction over the crime of aggression in the case of Ukraine. Lawyers say the commission of inquiry appointed by the Human Rights Council helps to buttress arguments for creating a special tribunal to prosecute the crime of aggression. “Why are you carrying out an investigation on the crime of aggression without then having a mechanism for seeking to give it effect?” Professor Sands asked. “I think this is a 1945 moment,” he added. “If it doesn’t happen now, it’s hard to imagine when it would happen.” Cassandra Vinograd Calling negotiations with Russia just “words,” President Volodymr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Russia’s claim it would reduce military activity around Kyiv was not a withdrawal but rather a retreat in light of his army’s fierce defense. In his nightly address, Zelensky warned that Russian troops were preparing for fresh strikes on the Donbas region. “We will not give up anything,” he said. “And we will fight for every meter of our land, for every our person.” Michael D. Shear The declassification of a U.S. intelligence assessment suggesting that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been misinformed about his military force’s struggles in Ukraine is part of a monthslong campaign of information warfare by the Biden administration. The effort began before the invasion, with the systematic release of classified information designed to disrupt Russia’s attempts to create false pretexts for an invasion by revealing Mr. Putin’s tactics. White House officials said on Wednesday that they released the intelligence about the Russian leader being misinformed so that there could be a “full understanding” of how Mr. Putin has miscalculated. “We believe he’s being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions,” Kate Bedingfield, the White House communications director, told reporters. “Because again, the senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth.” Ms. Bedingfield declined to say what the White House hoped to accomplish with the release of the intelligence, which also suggests that Mr. Putin is now in a state of tension with his top military officials. But it helps to bolster the public relations case that administration officials have been making for days, which is that the war has been a catastrophic mistake for Mr. Putin. “Putting forward this information simply contributes to a sense that this has been a strategic error for them,” Ms. Bedingfield said. Andrew E. Kramer Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine Russian forces are indeed moving away from Ukraine’s capital and the nearby town of Chernihiv, a senior Ukrainian official said Wednesday, after Moscow’s top negotiator told cease-fire talks that the Russian military would reduce the intensity of its attacks in those areas. Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s national security council, said some of the Russian units are not withdrawing but rather relocating to eastern Ukraine — appearing in Kharkiv and Donetsk, two eastern provinces. “The enemy is intensifying its formations there” to pressure the Ukrainian Army in the east, Mr. Danilov said. The Pentagon confirmed that some Russian troops had been repositioned, saying it was potentially for resupply in Belarus. “We’ve seen them begin to reposition less than 20 percent,” John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, told reporters Wednesday. “We think some of them, not all — but some of them, have already moved into Belarus.” Russia’s cease-fire negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, had announced earlier Wednesday a shift in focus away from the capital, Kyiv — essentially acknowledging the setbacks in the Russian advance in the area. Before his declaration, Russian forces assaulting Kyiv had become bogged down and in some places been pushed back. Despite the announcement, both Russian and Ukrainian artillery were firing through the day on Wednesday in Kyiv, where the thuds and booms in outlying towns could be heard in the city center. Russian artillery struck suburban towns on both banks of the Dnieper River, including in Irpin, a town west of Kyiv, where Ukraine’s army this week claimed a victory after defeating organized Russian resistance in the town. Ukrainian forces have in recent days been searching block by block to clear small pockets of Russian fighters who have become trapped, or who had filtered into the town to slow the Ukrainian advance. Mr. Danilov, the Ukrainian security official, cautioned it would be premature to conclude Russia has abandoned a push toward the capital, although it had relocated some troops. John Ismay contributed reporting from Washington. John Ismay The Pentagon believes that Russia currently has about 1,000 mercenaries from the Wagner Group in Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russia-backed separatists have been fighting a war since 2014. John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, told reporters that the Pentagon believes Wagner has been recruiting in Syria and Libya for more mercenaries to go fight. Mauricio Lima Despite more than a month of war, Lviv’s National Music Academy has continued its normal operations. Taras Mykytka, an 83-year-old conductor, started working at the conservatory after fleeing Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, in 2014, when battles with Russian-backed separatists began. “It’s like someone came to my house with a knife, is killing everyone, and at the same time says we are all one family,” Mykytka said of Russia’s current invasion. John Ismay Some Russian troops outside Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, have been “repositioned” to the north of the city, the Pentagon press secretary, John Kirby, told reporters. But he said that less than 20 percent of the troops were being repositioned and that the Pentagon believes some of them will head to Belarus to resupply. Michael D. Shear President Biden told President Volodymr Zelensky of Ukraine that the United States intends to give his government $500 million in direct budgetary aid, according to a White House statement detailing a call between the two leaders. The White House said the aid could be used to pay salaries and maintain basic government services. Officials said Zelensky also updated Biden on the status of negotiations with Russia. Julian E. Barnes, Lara Jakes and John Ismay on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence. The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle. Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers. “With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles’ heels of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.” In a news conference on Wednesday afternoon, a Pentagon spokesman, John F. Kirby, said that the Defense Department believed that Mr. Putin has not had access to an accurate account of his army’s failures in Ukraine. “We would concur with the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense, at every turn over the last month,” Mr. Kirby said. “If Mr. Putin is misinformed or uninformed about what’s going on inside Ukraine, it’s his military, it’s his war, he chose it,” Mr. Kirby said. “And so the fact that he may not have all the context — that he may not fully understand the degree to which his forces are failing in Ukraine, that’s a little discomforting, to be honest with you.
