Russia is losing its war against Ukraine. It is not defeated yet. But it is heading in that direction and President Vladimir Putin has fewer and fewer cards to play, writes James Nixey.
Russia is losing its war against Ukraine. It is not defeated yet. But it is heading in that direction and President Vladimir Putin has fewer and fewer cards to play.
The combination of recent battlefield defeats and Western resolve — in particular, a realization that Europe can just about get through the winter on its reserves without Russia’s usual energy supply volumes, and Western politicians not wanting to U-turn and admit defeat — has dealt Russia a one-two punch.
Its supposed military strength and its status as an energy superpower to whom Europeans were addicted had been widely, and it turns out wrongly, assumed to be Russia’s strongest assets.
So, Putin, an extremist badly misled by his craven subordinates about Russia’s real abilities, has been forced to ‘twist’ — to continue in the language of cards — to up the ante with his latest nuclear threats (he has been doing it for 15 years), and with his half-hearted, but less politically risky, partial mobilization of supposedly 300,000 reservists.
It is the threat of nuclear weapons use, of course, which makes western decision-makers pause and, in some cases, go wobbly — as it is intended to do. It should not, after all, be taken lightly from a state which has turned toward fascism and holds just over half of the world’s nuclear weapons.
Yet an increasing majority of western and now non-western powers are realizing that nuclear blackmail cannot be surrendered to, and that the consequences of Russia winning the war would have long-lasting debilitating effects on European and global security. Many world leaders may wish to make concessions over the heads of Ukraine’s leaders. But it is politically awkward to do so when aggressor and victim are so clearly distinguishable from each other.
