The Tamil-language action epic ‘Ponniyin Selvan I’ will earn around $4 million this weekend in just 510 theaters.
To the shock of no one, The Hollywood Reporter is reporting that an August with few big new releases and a September with even fewer big releases has resulted in a cumulative box office for the ninth month of 2022 ($328.7 million) lower than any such September (save for 2020) since 1996 ($326.7 million). If you merely count in-month releases, it’s the lowest September since 2001 for… obvious reasons. Either way, it’s a raw (non-adjusted-for-inflation) figure reminiscent of the late 1990s when a September smash like Rush Hour or The First Wives Club was unexpected and a welcome surprise. Once again, the problem is the lack of new big or big-ish movies opening between Bullet Train in early August and The Woman King in mid-September.
Blame Covid-related post-production delays for the likes of Salem’s Lot and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. Blame a streaming > theatrical mentality that saw films like (for reasons both mercenary and legal) Hocus Pocus 2 and Disenchanted, as well as Hellraiser and Prey debuting on Disney+ or Hulu sans even a token theatrical run. Blame various commercial flicks avoiding August and early September because they wanted an awards-friendly festival debut. Blame two years’ worth of copious studio programmers being leased or sold to streaming platforms. Even if studios have suddenly realized that making money from theatrical revenue is good, see: Armor Wars going from being a Disney+ series to a theatrical MCU movie, that’s not a light switch that can be quickly turned on.
In relatively good news, Parker Finn’s Smile (review) topped the domestic box office on Friday with $8.2 million, setting the stage for an over/under $19 million debut weekend. That will make the fifth weekend out of six (save for Labor Day when Top Gun: Maverick topped again) where a non-sequel/non-franchise, female-led, adult-skewing studio programmer has debuted atop the weekend box office. It’s the third weekend in a row where the newbie earned around $19 million (The Invitation and Barbarian topped with $7 million and $10 million). If this were happening amid conventional tentpole debuts and related holdover business (three of these titles were fronted by Black actresses, natch), that would be a best-case-scenario kind of theatrical recovery.
