Regional mediation efforts to reverse the coup in Niger collapsed as soon as they started
Regional mediation efforts to reverse the coup in Niger and restore its democracy collapsed as soon as they started. Tensions have escalated as the Sunday deadline nears for possible military intervention by other West African countries.
As its meeting ended Friday in neighboring Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, the region’s defense chiefs finalized a plan to use force against the Niger junta — needing approval by their political leaders — if Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated as Niger’s president. An Economic Community of West African States delegation to Niger, led by Nigeria’s former head of state Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, had tried unsuccessfully to meet with the coup leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who later declared that any aggression against Niger «will see an immediate response and without warning.”
What started as an overthrow of the president by his closest commanders in the Presidential Guard has received the support of some other soldiers, including the Nigerien army command.
Here’s what to expect:
ECOWAS INTERVENTION
This would be the first time in years that the regional bloc known as ECOWAS would try to forcefully put down a coup in West Africa, which has seen several successful coups since 2020.
“The events of the last two days make it more likely that this (military) intervention may actually happen,” said Nathaniel Powell, Africa analyst at the Oxford Analytica geopolitical intelligence firm. “And if they offer resistance to an ECOWAS intervention, this can turn out to be really catastrophic.”
ECOWAS would be doing so as a split family, with three other regimes — Mali and Burkina Faso, which border Niger, and Guinea — choosing to side with the junta.
Niger’s other neighbors include Chad, whose leader has tried to mediate between the coup plotters and ECOWAS, and Algeria and Libya, which are not members of the bloc. This leaves any military intervention through land largely restricted to Nigeria’s 1,600-km (1,000-mile) border with Niger.
