Russian leader’s trip is expected to be a show of the neighbours’ growing geostrategic alignment – but it could also reveal the limits of the relationship.
China’s expanding relations with Russia will be put to the test when Vladimir Putin makes an official visit this week, as Beijing tries to keep Moscow close while avoiding Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.
The Russian president will arrive in Beijing on Thursday for a two-day trip that is expected to be a show of the neighbours’ growing geostrategic alignment and the “deep friendship” of Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. But analysts say it could also reveal the limits of China-Russia ties.
With its full-scale invasion of Ukraine now in a third year, Russia – hit by sanctions and isolated by the West – has been edging closer to Beijing.
As the US and its allies pile pressure on China over its alleged support for Russia’s defence industry, analysts say Putin will be keen to secure a commitment to the nations’ “no limits” partnership during his visit.
“For Putin, the visit is important to emphasise that the strategic partnership with China remains strong, at a time when his own personal travel is restricted and his country is isolated internationally and economically,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, an expert on China-Russia ties and senior research scientist at the Centre for Naval Analyses, a US think tank.
But for Beijing, while the quasi-alliance with Moscow has become a countervailing force against Washington and its allies, it still needs to balance ties between Russia and the US to avoid confrontation with the West amid threats of fresh American sanctions over Ukraine.
That is why Putin’s latest China visit is of unusual significance, according to Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok. He added that the outcome could “define the further direction of Sino-Russian ties for the foreseeable future”.
He said the US demand that China curb deliveries of dual-use goods to Russia was a test of Beijing’s claim to be neutral on the conflict in Ukraine.
“Considering that a very wide range of modern products and services – such as machine tools, trucks, chips or satellite images – are essentially dual-use, such demands are tantamount to the requirement of a blanket embargo on trade with Russia,” Lukin said.
“If China submits to this ultimatum, it will wipe out much of its current trade with Russia.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after talks with Xi in Beijing last month, alleged Beijing was a “top supplier” to Russia’s defence industrial base and that “Russia would struggle to sustain its assault on Ukraine without China’s support”.
“I made it clear that if China does not address this problem, we will,” Blinken said, hinting at new sanctions against Chinese banks and companies on top of the existing ones that involve more than 100 Chinese enterprises.
Despite heavy criticism from the US and its allies, China and Russia have strengthened their economic and security ties since Putin launched an all-out war against Ukraine in February 2022, with bilateral trade surging from US$145 billion in 2021 to US$240 billion last year.
But with the US threatening to extend sanctions to banks and other Chinese entities, China’s exports to Russia – which grew at a double-digit pace last year – have dropped significantly this year.
