Market data has remained mixed. The weak Q1 GDP is not consistent with some of the most important measures. This week I expect pundits to be asking: Will the jobs report signal continued strength? Personal Note In response to reader…
Market data has remained mixed. The weak Q1 GDP is not consistent with some of the most important measures. This week I expect pundits to be asking:
Will the jobs report signal continued strength?
In response to reader interest I am trying to do an abbreviated WTWA when I am away. I will include the update of indicators and a few ideas about what I am watching. Some noted that this would also provide a forum for some of our “regulars” to congregate.
In my last WTWA I predicted a week of rebuilding the wall of worry. Some problems have been avoided, even if not completely solved. There are always new ones, and we did get some of that discussion last week.
I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a chart of market performance for the week. Once again, there was little change for the week.
Whatever the news, the net market effect was (once again) very small.
Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something very positive. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!
The Good
The best news is the strength of the earnings rebound. This is true both for year-over-year results and forward expectations. (Brian Gilmartin) .
While the government shutdown deadline was merely extended for a week, I am encouraged by the handling of this issue. The market hated this uncertainty on the past.
The Bad
The soft GDP numbers and uptick in initial jobless claims (not the time reflected in Friday’s payroll report) were the worst news.
The Ugly
Still Korea.
What to Watch For
Everyone wants to evaluate the Trump agenda, especially reflecting on the first 100 days. I do not expect movement on any of the big issues without some participation by Democrats.
The key economic reports are ISM, the ADP private employment, and the official employment report. It is a big week for data.
While there is no change expected from the FOMC meeting (and no press conference) , everyone will be watching for hints on the pace of rate hikes.
Quant Corner
We follow some regular featured sources and the best other quant news from the week.
Risk Analysis
Whether you are a trader or an investor, you need to understand risk. Think first about your risk. Only then should you consider possible rewards. I monitor many quantitative reports and highlight the best methods in this weekly update.
The Indicator Snapshot
The Featured Sources:
Bob Dieli: The “C Score” which is a weekly estimate of his Enhanced Aggregate Spread (the most accurate real-time recession forecasting method over the last few decades) . His subscribers get Monthly reports including both an economic overview of the economy and employment.
Holmes: Our cautious and clever watchdog, who sniffs out opportunity like a great detective, but emphasizes guarding assets.
RecessionAlert: Many strong quantitative indicators for both economic and market analysis. While we feature his recession analysis, Dwaine also has several interesting approaches to asset allocation. Try out his new public Twitter Feed.
Georg Vrba: The Business Cycle Indicator and much more. Check out his site for an array of interesting methods. Georg regularly analyzes Bob Dieli’s enhanced aggregate spread, considering when it might first give a recession signal. His interpretation suggests the probability creeping higher, but still after nine months.
Brian Gilmartin: Analysis of expected earnings for the overall market as well as coverage of many individual companies.
Doug Short: The World Markets Weekend Update (and much more) . His Big Four chart is the single best method to monitor the key indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research in recession dating. The latest update now includes the employment data.
Final Thoughts
Here is an update on my “Trump Matrix.” Last week’s timber tariff decision shows why it is important to track what the administration can easily accomplish versus what requires cooperation with other governments or Congress.

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An experienced Swiss climber died on Sunday after he fell in the Everest region of Nepal during preparations to climb the world’s highest mountain, the first to perish in the current climbing season, officials said….
An experienced Swiss climber died on Sunday after he fell in the Everest region of Nepal during preparations to climb the world’s highest mountain, the first to perish in the current climbing season, officials said. Ueli Steck, 40, died after falling to the foot of Mount Nuptse, a smaller peak in the area, said Mingma Sherpa of the Seven Summits Treks company that organised Steck’s expedition. Steck was in the area acclimatising ahead of a bid to climb Everest through the less-climbed West Ridge route and traverse to Lhotse, the world’s fourth highest peak – at 8,516 metres in May. “His body has been retrieved and is being brought to Kathmandu, ” Sherpa said. Kamal Prasad Parajuli, an official with Nepal’s Department of Tourism, confirmed Steck died while climbing Nuptse and that he had planned to attempt an Everest ascent. He said Steck, who climbed Everest in 2012, “slipped and fell 1,000 metres” in the Western Cwm along the normal route to Everest. The incident took place near the route’s Camp Two, which is located at an altitude of 6,400 metres (21,000 feet) , Parajuli said. A veteran climber of Mount Annapurna in western Nepal, the world’s tenth highest mountain, and several other 8,000 metre peaks, Steck had won several awards for his mountaineering feats. Along with two other European climbers, Steck was involved in a brawl with sherpa guides over fixing ropes in 2013. The altercation, which forced the climbers off the mountain, drew international headlines. Last year, Steck and a German climber discovered the bodies of two famed American climbers, Alex Lowe and David Bridges, who were swept away in 1999 by an avalanche during their attempt to scale the world’s 14th highest peak, Shishapangma. Hundreds of climbers gather at Everest base camp during the March-May climbing season as they prepare to climb the 8,850 metre Everest Summit.

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