Samsung heir Lee Jae-yong has become a criminal suspect in a widening probe into the corruption and influence-peddling scandal engulfing the impeached , prosecutors said Wednesday. Lee, vice chairman of Samsung Electronics and the son of the Samsung Group chairman Lee Kun-hee, would be quizzed as a “suspect” in connection to bribery, prosecutors said. “We have decided to question Lee tomorrow morning… as a suspect,” Lee Kyu-Chul, spokesman for the team of special prosecutors investigating the scandal, told reporters. The affair centres on , who is accused of using her ties to Park to coerce top firms into “donating” tens of millions of dollars to two non-profit foundations which Choi then used as her personal ATMs. Samsung was the biggest contributor to the foundations. It is also accused of separately giving millions of euros to Choi to bankroll her daughter’s equestrian training in Germany in a bid to curry favour. Prosecutors have for months questioned Lee and other senior Samsung officials. The officials reportedly argued that although they were coerced to offer money, they sought no favours in return and thus the payments were not a bribe. Spokesman Lee said prosecutors “left open the possibility” of formally arresting the Samsung scion later. Prosecutors are investigating whether Samsung bribed Choi in order to win state approval for a controversial merger which it sought in 2015. The merger of two Samsung group units — Cheil Industries and Samsung C&T — was seen as a crucial step towards ensuring a smooth third-generation power transfer to Lee Jae-yong. It was criticised by many, who said it wilfully undervalued Samsung C&T’s stocks. But the National Pension Service (NPS) — a major Samsung shareholder — voted in favour of the deal and it eventually went through. Prosecutors have raided multiple Samsung offices as well as the NPS in connection with the scandal. The fund — the world’s third largest pension fund — is overseen by the welfare ministry. A former welfare minister was arrested last month for allegedly pressuring NPS officials to vote in favour of the Samsung deal. Park, who stands accused of colluding with Choi to extract money from the firms, was impeached by parliament last month but denies any criminal wrongdoing. The Constitutional Court is currently reviewing the validity of her impeachment. Choi is on trial for charges including coercion and abuse of power.

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US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Tuesday that if launches do not pose a risk to the US or an ally, «it may be more to our advantage… to gather intelligence from the flight. »
In his new year’s address , North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un said the country had «entered the final stages of preparation for the test launch» of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could threaten the US mainland.
This week, Pyongyang upped the threat , saying it could launch such a missile «at any time and anywhere. »
Intelligence gathering
The US and other observers «can learn a lot» from any missile test, said Tal Inbar, a North Korea expert at the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies.
«We can analyze the trajectory and conclude some insight about the power of the engines and the amount of fuel, and estimate the potential range of the missile. »
If it is possible to retrieve the missile or rocket from the sea, as South Korea did in February last year , Inbar said there «is a wealth of intelligence in such debris. »
He added that it was generally unwise to shoot down any missile that does not pose a threat as not only would you lose the ability to examine the missile and its flight, «if you try and shoot it down and miss, that’s a huge PR embarrassment. »
Long road to ICBMs
Despite repeated claims about its capability to strike at the US mainland, North Korea has never successfully tested an ICBM, and experts have cast doubt on how close Pyongyang is to having the technology to even attempt it.
Even the country’s mid-range missile — the Musudan — «barely works,» according to aerospace and rocket expert John Schilling, «exploding in seven out of eight tests so far. »
Pyongyang’s purported ICBMs, Schilling wrote in a report in December , «don’t exist, except as parade mock-ups and engineering test articles. »
«When they are completed, they will require years of flight testing to reach operational status, with no doubt many more catastrophic failures,» he said.
Inbar disagreed, saying all the evidence points to the country’s ICBMs being «real missiles and a real threat. »
«But the question remains of what would be the reliability of a missile that has never flown before,» he said.
He added that Pyongyang may be loathe to test such a missile as doing so would deplete its arsenal of a weapon that is complex and expensive to build.
According to North Korean state media, the country last year successfully tested engines for launching ICBMs, including a solid-fuel rocket engine that would allow a missile to be launched quickly with little forewarning.
It has also carried out multiple submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tests and, according to US intelligence, «probably» possesses the capability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for placing on an ICBM.
Space tech
Experts say North Korea has been using its space program — which Pyongyang claims is peaceful — to covertly test this technology.
In February 2016, the North said it successfully launched a satellite into space , but a senior US defense official told CNN the satellite was «tumbling in orbit» and «incapable of functioning in any useful way. »
According to a report by the Arms Control Association , all North Korean satellite launches have used rockets that «employed low-thrust engines in the upper stages, which would not provide sufficient power if the rocket were to fly on a ballistic missile trajectory. »
Like Schilling, the report cast doubts on the viability of North Korea’s ICBM technology, pointing out that of the two missiles shown off in public «neither has been flight-tested, and North Korea has not developed and tested a re-entry vehicle capable of withstanding the thermal and mechanical rigors of re-entry into the atmosphere at ICBM velocities. »
Other threats
While North Korea may not be on the verge of launching an ICBM, this does not mean Pyongyang isn’t capable of causing absolute devastation. The country has a growing nuclear stockpile , as well as up to 5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons , according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).
Last year saw a marked uptick in mid-range missile tests, of the type that could strike Tokyo or Seoul, home to a combined 23 million people, as well as tens of thousands of US troops.
While Washington and Seoul are working to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) in South Korea, its future under a Donald Trump presidency is uncertain.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the US-based East Asia Nonproliferation Program, told CNN last year that North Korean simultaneous missile testing seemed to indicate it was trying to find a way to bypass THAAD’s defenses .
Developments in Pyongyang’s SLBM systems also pose a threat to its neighbors, as missiles launched from underwater are far harder to detect .
While the danger posed by ICBMs may be overstated, North Korea’s conventional and nuclear threat to its neighbors is profound, and may be why Trump is left with few options other than sitting down with Kim Jong Un .
If North Korea is hoping for just such a meeting, as some analysts have argued , Inbar said it is «logical to assume» that Kim will want to test an ICBM as soon as possible.
«What he will put on the table will be the basis for the negotiations, (so Kim) has to show his cards,» he said. «If he is ready from a technical point of view, I would expect to see a launch soon. «

© Source: http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/11/asia/north-korea-missile-threat/index.html
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The December 9 impeachment of South Korean President Park Geun-hye has created a vacuum of political leadership in South Korea. Normally, the South Korean president would lead a full court press to confirm President-elect Donald Trump’s commitment to the U. S.-ROK security alliance and coordinate a consistent approach to the growing North Korean nuclear threat.
Instead, South Korea’s bureaucracy muddles through by managing day-to-day activities under an acting president while South Korea’s Constitutional Court deliberates for up to 180 days on whether to uphold or reject the South Korean National Assembly’s impeachment motion. Presidential candidates prepare for an early election that will be held sixty days following the court’s judgment if the impeachment is upheld. If the impeachment is rejected, elections will be held in December 2017 as originally scheduled. Until South Korea has a new president, South Korea’s political vacuum will not be filled.
Read more on The Cipher Brief .

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«Ban was greatly surprised by the news, which he learned from the media. He knows nothing about it, » Ban’s spokesman, Lee Do-woon, said. 
The former UN chief plans to travel through South Korea to speak to the public until late January as part of his anticipated presidential bid, the spokesman added.
«What [Ban] needs to do is draw a line and say he has nothing to do with [the alleged improprieties],” Kim Sang-jin, professor of political science at Konkuk University, told Reuters. “He needs to be convincing in his explanation, otherwise people will start doubting him. »
«If he mishandles this, people will start thinking that he is too weak or isn’t as clean as they thought he was,» Kim added.
The 39-page indictment, unveiled at a Manhattan courthouse on Tuesday, charges Manhattan real estate broker Joo Hyun ‘Dennis’ Bahn – Ban’s nephew – and his father Ban Ki-sang, a senior executive in Keangnam Enterprises Co. Ltd, a South Korean construction company.
According to US prosecutors, the international bribery scheme took place between March 2013 and May 2015, and involved the attempted sale of a commercial and residential complex owned by Keangnam Enterprises in the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi.
The plot revolved around a bid to get an official from an undisclosed Middle Eastern country to acquire the lucrative property using a sovereign wealth fund. It also allegedly included an attempt to contact that undisclosed state’s leader while he was in New York City for the annual UN General Assembly, according to AFP.
Among those charged is also US businessman Malcolm Harris, who reportedly presented himself as an agent of the Middle Eastern official.
According to US prosecutors, Ban’s nephew and younger brother agreed to pay an initial bribe of some $500,000 wired from a South Korean account to an account in New York in April 2014. It was followed by a $2 million payment upon the closing of the sale.
The indictment alleged that Bahn’s father turned to his son for help when his construction company plunged into a liquidity crisis in 2013. According to AP, Bahn would earn a commission of at least $5 million if he could find an investor for the building complex in Hanoi, known as Landmark 72, which included a 72-story commercial office building – then the tallest in the Indochina Peninsula. It had cost Keangnam Enterprises over $1 billion to construct.
Prosecutors said that Bahn, 38, made Keangnam Enterprises and its creditors think that the Vietnam complex was just about to be purchased. When the sale never materialized, the construction firm was forced to enter court receivership in South Korea, AP reported, citing the indictment. 
Bahn has been accused of paying a $500,000 bribe to a local businessman, forging documents and stealing over $200,000 from one of his clients. Assistant US Attorney Daniel Noble said a nine-count indictment included charges that Bahn violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, engaged in money laundering and committed wire fraud, which could result in a prison sentence of up to 10 years.
«He’s a liar. He is a master of deceit and we believe poses a very high risk of flight,» Noble said while concluding his case.
The prosecutor said that after his arrest, Bahn made incriminating statements to FBI agents about the case.
Bahn, who has lived in the New York area for the past 18 years, having attained lawful permanent resident status, has been released on bail.
His defense lawyer, Julia Gatto, said her client – who also teaches undergraduate students at New York University – needed to prepare for the start of classes later this month.
Although Ban Ki-moon has not yet declared his candidacy for the South Korean presidency, the 72-year-old has had a team laying groundwork in Seoul ahead of his arrival to the capital this week, according to Reuters.
Ban served as UN secretary-general from 2007 until 2016, and as South Korea’s foreign minister from 2004 to 2006. Prior to the current scandal, he was widely seen as a shoo-in to be South Korea’s next president.
South Korea could face an early election following parliament’s recent impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in an influence-peddling scandal.

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The South Korean cosmetics industry has been hit hard in the Chinese market after 19 of its products failed to meet the country’s import guidelines, a move that is believed to be China’s reply to Seoul for allowing the US to deploy a T erminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.
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Pulse News reported that industry sources on Tuesday revealed that last Jan. 3, Chinese authorities had announced that 28 cosmetics products, which weighed in at roughly 11 tons, had failed to meet Chinese standards. Of the 28, 19 were from South Korea. The authorities gave out vast reasons for the disapproval such as changes in ingredients.
Some of the affected items are creams, cleansers, and toothpaste, among others. CJ Lion’s shampoo, IASO’s lotion, and several other cosmetics are some of the products included in the list, which was based on the quality assessment carried out by Chinese authorities in November.
Korea Joongang Daily reported that the ban was likely because of  the growing tension between China and Korea. And Kim Hye-mi, an analyst at Baro Investment & Securities, noted that China has started imposing strict regulations on packages from Korea after the Seoul agreed to install the US’ THAAD system in July.
«China has delivered verbal instructions in the country to cut travelers to Korea by 20% as a form of retaliation against Korea,» Kim said.
Aekyung’s body wash was also included in the list because allegedly of a change in ingredients. A spokesperson for the company later explained that since its products were banned, it had to make necessary adjustments to meet China’s standards.
«There are concerns this is part of retaliation from China due to Korea’s deployment of THAAD, but we do not agree. China has actually tightened its quality guidelines every year apart from political issues,» the spokesperson said.

© Source: http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/109755/20170111/south-korea-china-thaad-cosmetics-imports.htm
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TOKYO: A South Korean political vacuum and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s concerns about his conservative political base have rekindled a feud over wartime history, just as tension over North Korea makes cooperation between the U. S. allies as vital as ever.
The row over «comfort women», as those forced to work in Japanese wartime military brothels are known, coincides with uncertainty over Donald Trump’s stance towards North Korea, which has launched a series of nuclear and missile tests in defiance of U. N. sanctions, when he takes over as U. S. president on Jan. 20.
A spat over wartime history that flared in 2012 sent Japan-South Korea ties into a deep chill, delaying a deal on military intelligence sharing and preventing a summit.
A rerun could hamper efforts to upgrade security cooperation but with regional stakes high given North Korea’s threat to test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), experts are hopeful fallout can be contained.
«(North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un said in his New Year speech that North Korea will finalise the process of developing an ICBM, so South Korea knows security cooperation with Japan and the United States is pretty important,» said former defence official Narushige Michishita, now a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
«But if they are to upgrade cooperation … the political problem might affect a decision to go ahead, especially on the Korean side,» he said, citing efforts to integrate U. S.-Japan and U. S.-South Korea missile defence systems as an example.
A senior Self-Defence Force officer said that strained ties with South Korea could affect security arrangements with Japan.
«For example, we may not get information quickly if North Korea launches a missile,» he said. «Given the distance from Japan, it’s hard for the Self-Defence Force to monitor, so Japan relies on South Korean or American military information. That might be affected. «
Also, negotiations could stall over evacuating Japanese citizens by Self-Defence Force planes in case of an emergency on the Korean peninsula, he said.
Japan on Friday said it was temporarily recalling its ambassador to South Korea over a statue near the Japanese consulate in Busan city commemorating Korean comfort women. Japan also suspended talks on a new currency swap arrangement.
Tokyo says the statue, put in place late last year, and another near the Japanese embassy in Seoul, violate a December 2015 agreement stating the issue — which has long plagued ties — would be «irreversibly resolved» if all conditions were met.
«If the Japan-South Korea agreement breaks down, this would be a problem with serious mutual spill-over effects,» Masahiko Shibayama, an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, told Reuters, noting the two countries were important security and economic partners.
Abe has apologised and a US$1 billion yen fund to aid victims has been created. This week he repeated his call for Seoul to keep its end of the deal by removing the statues.
But South Korea’s government has been seriously weakened by the impeachment last month of President Park Geun-hye over an influence-peddling scandal.
The tough stance by Abe, who before taking office had questioned a landmark 1993 Japanese apology over the issue, is due partly to criticism from his conservative supporters of the 2015 agreement, several experts said.
«The present leadership in Japan is beholden to a rather strong nationalist movement,» said Andrew Horvat, visiting professor at Josai International University.
Still, Tokyo’s steps fell short of the harsher action of withdrawing the ambassador and on Tuesday, South Korean Acting President Hwang Kyo Ahn called for restraint.
«The tension over the comfort woman statue can only be temporary especially when North Korea is escalating its threats,» said Jeon Kyong-mann, an analyst at the Institute for Korean Integration of Society in Seoul.

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Sen. Lindsey Graham said he intends to offer retired Gen. Jim Mattis a congressional authorization to use military force to stop the North Korea intercontinental ballistic missile program.
Mattis, who President-elect Trump tapped to be the next defense secretary, will testify at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
Graham, R-S. C., said stopping the North Korean effort to develop a missile to hit the U. S. should be one of Mattis’ and Trump’s top priorities.
«I am going to offer to Gen. Mattis on Thursday a congressional authorization to use force to stop the ICBM program from hitting the homeland if they want it. I think every member of Congress should be on the record as to whether or not they support the proposition of using military force if necessary,» Graham said at an event Tuesday hosted by the U. S. Institute of Peace.
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If Trump does nothing to stop the ICBM program, Graham said he will have to «own the consequences of letting it go forward. »
After North Korea stated that it plans to test a ballistic intercontinental missile, Trump tweeted this month that «it won’t happen. »
Graham said that he would not have had that conversation on Twitter if he were commander-in-chief.
«Trump has tweeted himself into a red line here,» he said. «I wouldn’t have done it that way. I’m glad I don’t email or tweet. »
Retired Gen. John Kelly also said that Trump’s long-promised border wall wouldn’t be effective by itself.
During the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, Cruz rattled off a number of examples.

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