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When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived late Tuesday night in Taiwan, its tallest building — iconic landmark Taipei 101 — lit up with words of welcome, blinking „Thank you“ and „TW ♥ U.S.“
While Pelosi’s visit delighted people in Taiwan, it enraged Beijing and set the region on edge over what China might do in retaliation. From the Philippines to Singapore, countries are worried the status quo could turn from tension to conflict.
„What countries in this region know is that China cannot do nothing — it will look weak,“ says Singaporean veteran diplomat and academic Kishore Mahbubani. „China has no choice but to react,“ he says, adding, „at the same time, China doesn’t want to start World War III.“
China views Taiwan as a breakaway island that should be ruled by the mainland. The U.S. follows an intentionally vague „One China“ policy, which views Taiwan as an independent entity that should eventually be integrated into China.
Pelosi has long been a critic of China and an advocate for Taiwan’s democracy. She was the first House speaker to visit in 25 years, as U.S. officials generally avoid any moves that could touch off a military conflict — China versus Taiwan, and possibly, the U.S.
Southeast Asia especially feels the strain of living in the shadow of the U.S.-China rivalry. „Governments will be very cautious“ talking about cross-Taiwan Strait relations, „for fear of how China will react,“ says Manila-based maritime expert Jay Batongbacal.
He says the region does not want to become „an arena of major power conflict,“ and countries would not like to be seen as taking sides.
For that reason, governments in Southeast Asia have stuck to mild statements about the importance of the U.
