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Making the future too bright: How wishful thinking can point us in the wrong direction

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Everyone indulges in wishful thinking now and again. But when is that most likely to happen, and when could it actually be harmful? A new study led by the University of Amsterdam (UvA) demonstrates unequivocally that the greater the insecurity and anxiety of a situation, the more likely people are to become overly optimistic—even to the point where it can prevent us from taking essential action. The study’s results have now been published in the journal American Economic Review.
Everyone indulges in wishful thinking now and again. But when is that most likely to happen, and when could it actually be harmful? A new study led by the University of Amsterdam (UvA) demonstrates unequivocally that the greater the insecurity and anxiety of a situation, the more likely people are to become overly optimistic—even to the point where it can prevent us from taking essential action. The study’s results have now been published in the journal American Economic Review.
„People aren’t purely truth-seekers—many beliefs are influenced by emotions and driven by what is pleasant or comforting. Like belief in an afterlife or optimism about health outcomes,“ says Joël van der Weele, professor of Economic Psychology at the UvA. Working alongside professor of Neuroeconomics Jan Engelmann and an international team, Van der Weele set out to answer whether people become overly optimistic when facing potential hardships.
„So far, studies haven’t provided clear evidence for wishful thinking, with many not backing up the idea,“ explains Engelmann.

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