With the NFL draft approaching next week, bettors are ramping up their preparation to take on all the offseason futures wagering options available in the …
With the NFL draft approaching next week, bettors are ramping up their preparation to take on all the offseason futures wagering options available in the market. One of the best ways to gain an advantage over the house on these options is to use stats from the previous season, which have historically been very reliable for predicting the teams due to improve or decline. The NFL is unlike any other league in that teams can make quick turnarounds from year to year, positively or negatively. Last week, I analyzed the impact of tight or blowout wins and losses on a team’s prospects the next season. Certain other statistical indicators a team exhibits in one season can illustrate how close it is to changing the status of the three C’s (coaching, confidence, cohesiveness), which can foretell a shift in success and, eventually, its fortunes the next season. Read through these findings, combine them with what we learned a week ago, add free-agent transactions and draft results — and then head to the betting window. — Sixteen of 17 teams since 2010 that had a turnover differential of minus-1.0 per game or worse and did not make the playoffs improved the next season. The only one that didn’t, the Jets, maintained their 5-11 mark from 2016 to ’17. The Chargers and Giants qualified on this system last year, and both improved by two wins. The average regular-season win improvement was 4.6. Team affected in 2021: Broncos. — Since 2009, a total of 33 teams have had a negative turnover differential and won fewer than six games against the spread. All but two of those teams improved their ATS winning percentage the next season, by an average of 19 percent. All but five improved their outright winning percentage as well, by an average of 20 percent. And nine qualified for the playoffs, including the Browns last season. Teams affected in 2021: Cowboys, Texans, Eagles. — Fifteen teams since 2009 have had negative or even turnover differential yet still managed to win double-digit games against the spread. Nine of those teams reached the postseason the next year, including the Rams of 2020, who won a wild-card contest before falling in the divisional round. Teams affected in 2021: None. — Of the 23 teams that improved their won-lost percentage by 34 percent or more from one season to the next since ’09, all but four had negative or even turnover differentials the previous season. Teams potentially affected in 2021: Bears, Bengals, Cowboys, Broncos, Lions, Texans, Jaguars, Rams, Raiders, Vikings, Eagles,49ers, Washington — Just three of the 14 teams since 2009 that had a turnover differential of plus-1.0 or better per game improved their records the next season.
