Coming on top of a declining birth rate, the pandemic is likely to cause an even more serious drop in the number of new babies born, impacting a wide range of industries
When the pandemic first hit and shelter-in-place requirements went into effect across virtually the entire nation, many people, only half-jokingly, said nine months later the country would likely see a big spike in the birth rate.
But it turns out that nobody is laughing anymore: the reality is that the number of babies likely to be born in the last quarter of 2020 and perhaps well into the years after is going to be dramatically less.
And coming on top of a historic drop in the overall birth rate over the past decade, this spells serious business consequences for a wide range of industries, from diapers to preschools and from Sesame Street to McDonald’s.
In a new report from the Brookings Institution as reported by the Washington Post, economists are forecasting that the country could see “on the order of 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year due to the pandemic recession.” At the high rate it represents close to 14% fewer births in the country compared to last year.
Using historical patterns both from the Great Recession that started in 2008 and, going back a century, the 1918 flu pandemic, they forecast a significant decline in people having children, largely due to the costs and the psychological economic malaise people are suffering through right now.
