Trump’s campaign in 2020 is making a mistake that has caused invincible empires to collapse since time began. He is fighting the last war.
Polls show Donald Trump badly trailing Joe Biden in the presidential contest. Conventional wisdom warns that based on 2016, Trump can still close the gap. Or that his voters are “quiet voters” afraid to admit to pollsters that they support him, but determined to show up on election day. Or, because Trump voters are less educated than Biden supporters, they aren’t as likely to answer their phones or fill out online surveys. There are elements of the 2020 campaign that are eerily reminiscent of 2016. Trump is getting huge crowds at rallies. The Republican Party is united behind him. Attacks on his opponent include uncovered emails and strong-arming a Supreme Court appointment. Trump’s favorability is in the mid-40s, just about where it was four years ago. His team has targeted typically neglected voters via social media. Russia may be lending a hand. Even the “Make America Great Again” slogan is back. But Trump’s campaign in 2020 is making a mistake that has caused seemingly invincible empires to collapse since time began. He is fighting the last war. Rather than taking the temperature of the times and making significant changes, his team has reverted to using the playbook that won them the White House in 2016. It’s an understandable strategic decision. After all, the formula provided the most shocking result in American electoral history. Why not do the same thing again? So Trump and his team have repeated the formula. He’s created a dismissive nickname for his opponent. He’s whipped crowds into a frenzy with promises to build the wall and lock up their opponents.
